India: Hike in HRC list prices of up to 1,000/t by Tier-I mills on the cards for Nov'24

Tier-I steel mills have officially announced a price increase of INR 800-1,000/t ($6-18/t) for hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) in their November 2024 sales. This upward adjustment is primarily driven by the recent rise in NMDC iron ore prices and ongoing speculations about potential anti-dumping duty implementations. While this price hike has been confirmed by several mills, official confirmation from a few others is still awaited.

List prices of HRCs (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250, Br.) stood at INR 48,500-50,750/t ($559-595/t) exy-Mumbai, while CRCs (0.9 mm, IS513 CR1) hovered at around INR 54,300-57,250/t ($631-678/t). These prices exclude GST of 18%.

Factors behind price increase

Domestic trade-level prices remain stable: The market experienced an initial rise in both prices and demand at the start of the month. However, as the month progressed, a notable slowdown emerged due to weakening demand.

"The market witnessed robust demand at the beginning of the month, which is typical ahead of the Diwali festival due to various commitments and restocking needs. However, this demand significantly weakened post-Dussehra, with subsequent demand remaining subdued," noted a market participant.

Increased imports: As per BigMint's vessel line-up data, the cumulative import volume for October 2024 touched 687297 t. It was 776835 t in September, and 627426 t August 2024. A deal was heard concluded from Korea for 30,000t CFR at $530 CFR Chennai for December deliveries.

Export market: Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) export prices to the Middle East declined by $10/t w-o-wk, reaching $560/t CFR, down from $570/t CFR the previous week, according to sources. Approximately 20,000-25,000t of HRCs were booked from India at the $560/t CFR Middle East levels.

Meanwhile, India's HRC export offers to Europe (S275, 3 mm) remained steady at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB, east coast India). Additionally, a transaction of about 2,000t of HRCs was reported at $600/t CFR Antwerp for November shipment.

Weekly price update

BigMint's benchmark assessment prices (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8mm) and CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9mm) remained stable at INR 48,000/t ($576/t) and INR 55,900/t ($664/t) respectively on 5 November 2024 compared to the previous week. The prices quoted are exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and were for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries.

Outlook

The absorption of price hikes by mills is expected to be challenging, as buyers are limiting their purchases to just fulfilling immediate needs. With ongoing rumours about the potential implementation of anti-dumping duties and limited reports of import deals, prices are anticipated to remain range-bound in the trade market.