India: Finished stainless steel prices edge down w-o-w despite rise in LME nickel

• Subdued buying interest weighs on market
  
  
• Ferro chrome prices hit 1-year low, pressuring SS prices
  
  

India's finished stainless steel prices declined by up to INR 2,000/tonne (t) w-o-w, primarily due to subdued buying interest. Meanwhile, recent developments in Indonesia led to a rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices over the week.

Additionally, the decline in ferro chrome prices in India which has hit 1-year low levels have also put pressure on the domestic stainless steel prices.

LME nickel prices see uptrend

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices rose to $15,840/t, a 3% increase from last week's $15,450/t. Nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained largely steady w-o-w at 164,586 t, compared to 165,366 t the previous week.

The price surge followed Indonesia's announcement of a potential 40% cut in nickel mine quotas, which could reduce output to 150 million tonnes (mnt) in 2025 from 272 mnt in 2024. This move, aimed at balancing global demand with resource sustainability, could significantly impact global nickel supply, particularly the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

Domestic finished flats range-bound w-o-w

BigMint's benchmark assessment for stainless steel (304 series) HRCs showed w-o-w stability at INR 177,000/t ex-Mumbai. Similarly, SS316 hot-rolled coils (HRCs) were priced at INR 321,000-323,000/t ex-Mumbai.

Finished longs drop w-o-w

BigMint's assessment for SS 304L (25-100 mm) black round bars was at INR 170,000/t ex-Mumbai, dropping INR 2,000/t w-o-w.

Meanwhile, SS 316L black round bars stood at INR 280,000-282,000/t ex-Mumbai. Prices of SS 316L bright bars stood at INR 301,000-303,000/t ex-Mumbai, down by INR 1,000/t w-o-w.

SS 304 wire rods (5-16 mm) in Mumbai were recorded at INR 156,000-158,000/t, reflecting a slight drop of INR 500/t w-o-w.

Market scenario

A source stated, "There have been no major movements in the market, as the domestic segment is slow. While LME nickel tags are rising, there will be no significant impact on price movements unless domestic demand improves."

A buyer noted, "Demand for finished materials continues to be significantly low. The recent news regarding Indonesian nickel has pushed LME prices higher, but a substantial increase in trade levels this month is unlikely."

A trader said, "The Stainless Steel Association notes that Indian buyers are now importing from China on a need-based approach, with volumes significantly lower compared to last month. This cautious approach reflects tighter cash flow and challenging market conditions."

China's stainless steel prices gain w-o-w on pre-holiday boost, LME nickel recovery

Stainless steel prices in China inched up w-o-w driven by macro policies and increased transactions prior to the Lunar New Year holidays. As per sources, SS 304 CRC 2B coil prices are at RMB 13,090/t, up RMB 170/t. Nickel prices rose slightly amid Indonesian mining regulations, but planned maintenance by stainless steel producers for Jan-Feb'25 may reduce nickel demand after the holidays.

Raw materials overview

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices rose by INR 18,250/t w-o-w, as most sellers increased their offers last week following a surge in market activity after the New Year holidays. Additionally, the recent strengthening of the US dollar contributed to the rise in offers.

As per BigMint's assessment on 15 January, ferro molybdenum prices in India were at INR 2,520,000/t ($29,174/t) exw-India.

Ferro chrome: Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) prices stood at INR 99,100/t, largely stable w-o-w, with most sellers booked out and awaiting the outcome of the Odisha Mining Corporation auction.

Global updates

Russia's stainless steel output declines y-o-y in 11MCY'24

Russia's stainless steel production totalled 22,600 t in November 2024, up 12% m-o-m from October but down 28% y-o-y from November 2023. Total output for the first 11 months of 2024 was approximately 257,000 t, a 14% y-o-y decline. However, domestic demand remains strong in engineering industries.

Outlook

The stainless steel market has remained sluggish so far this month, but prices may rise in the near term, supported by higher LME nickel prices. However, sustained price recovery will depend on domestic demand dynamics and market sentiment.