India: Domestic silico manganese price remains stable amid limited buying

• MOIL revision may encourage hike in lower grades
  
  
• Regional dynamics lead to disparity in domestic prices
  
  

The domestic silico manganese market experienced a period of stability following a minor price correction earlier in the week. The market was influenced by fluctuating steel prices and subdued buying interest. Despite these factors, prices remained relatively stable.

According to BigMint's assessments on 3 December 2024, prices of the 60-14 grade remained constant w-o-w at INR 64,300-65,100/t ($761-768/t) exw. Offers in Raipur stood at INR 65,000-65,500/t ($767-773/t) exw.

However, the premium-grade (60-15) witnessed a slight increase to INR 66,500-67,500/t ($785-$798/t) exw in both Durgapur and Raipur.

Sources said, domestic steel mills currently have sufficient silico manganese stocks. However, the influx of competitively prices material from overseas is significantly impacting domestic prices. Domestic smelters, facing high input costs, have limited room to offer further discounts. Currently, silico manganese is being sold at losses of INR 1,500-2,000/t ($17- 24/t)from the current cost prices.

Confirmed deals (as per BigMint)

Market overview

Chinese offers aggressively low: Aggressively low pricing by Chinese producers in Southeast Asia has heightened competition, forcing others to cut prices. Despite global challenges, India's market shows resilience, supported by a slight rise in Chinese prices. However, subdued demand and price pressure continue to weigh on overall sentiment.

Regional price disparities: Regional price disparities have surfaced in the domestic silico manganese market as Durgapur's export-driven producers, facing weak export demand, increased supply, pressuring prices down to INR 64,000-64,500/t exw($755-761/t). This has forced Raipur and Vizag producers to adjust. While major smelters in these regions hold firm at INR 65,000-65,500/t exw ($768-773/t), smaller players have lowered prices to stay competitive.

Smelters adjust production: Smelters were strategically managing inventory levels of ore by adjusting production to align with market demand and price dynamics.

MOIL's revises prices: MOIL, India's leading manganese ore producer, revised December 2024 prices with a 3% cut for grades above 44% and a 3-5% hike for grades below 44%, including SMGR and fines. The adjustment has helped stabilise lower-grade silico manganese prices, as such ore is vital for producing the 60-14 grade. This may encourage smelters to raise prices of their lower grades.

Indian steel prices remain firm w-o-w: Domestic steel prices remained firm w-o-w amid modest demand and limited inquiries for bulk bookings. BigMint's daily steel billet index closed at INR 38,800/t exw-Raipur on 4 December 2024, inching down by INR 100/t w-o-w. Despite the fluctuating prices, caution prevails, with buyers hesitant to commit to large-scale purchases.

Outlook

The domestic silico manganese market is expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, influenced by a delicate balance of supply and demand. While supply constraints could support prices, weak global demand for manganese alloys may exert downward pressure. The overall market outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for fluctuations in both directions.