India: Domestic, imported copper prices rise even as bid-offer disparity prevails

Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 729,000/tonne (t) ($8,682/t) exy-Delhi, an increase of 2.1% w-o-w. Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) recently hit a 4-month low, falling to $8,750/t. However, prices have since rebounded to $9,202/t, reaching levels seen in July.

Prices of secondary continuous casting rods (CCR) (99%) were at INR 780,000/t ($9,289/t) ex-Delhi, rising slightly by 2.1% w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices were at INR 820,000/t ($9,765/t), up by 1.3% w-o-w. Imported scrap prices have increased by up to 1.7% w-o-w.

Despite a rise in domestic copper prices, as sellers adjusted offers in line with futures price increases, trading activity remained sluggish amid weak demand from the re-rolling sector. Activity in finished products like wires and tubes remains limited, reflecting a cautious market sentiment where buyers are hesitant to make commitments amid high offer prices.

Payment delays, now stretching from 7-14 days to 20-25 days, have slowed down the sellers, creating a key constraint in the market. The supply of copper scrap remains in balance with demand, but sellers are holding onto stock anticipating a price increase after the monsoon. This cautious approach reflects the ongoing challenges of delayed payments and the expectation of stronger market conditions in the near term.

Copper MCX prices

Copper prices have remained stable and range-bound over the past week. The copper futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has fluctuated between INR 778,000/t and INR 797,000/t during this period.

LME prices rise w-o-w, stocks decline

The price of copper has been steadily rising in recent weeks, recovering from a four-month low reached in early August, however Three-month LME copper prices saw 1.3% w-o-w rise and was currently at $9,200/ levels.

Copper inventories in LME warehouses fell by 2,250 t to 315,000 t this past week. However, stocks are currently at an almost three-year high.

Global scenario:

China is increasing its copper imports from Pakistan, Australia, and Germany as port disruptions at Damaiyu begin to ease after months of delays. Demand for motors and specific copper grades, including Millberry, Candy Berry, Cloves, and Birch Cliff from Australia, has risen following a period of slower activity.

Copper production from Chilean state miner Codelco dropped 10.7% in July compared to the same month last year, according to the copper commission Cochilco. The world's largest copper producer continues to face challenges in stabilizing output, producing 111,400 t in July. While other major miners reported mixed results. Codelco has been struggling to increase production, which reached a 25-year low last year.

Imported price trends

BigMint's assessment of talk scrap from the United States of America (USA) was at $4,850/t, a 0.7% w-o-w rise. Prices of Middle East-origin scrap, largely from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), were recorded at $4,650/t, up by 1.1% w-o-w.

Copper motor mix scrap is being offered at $1,200/t by sellers based in the European Union (EU) and the United States (US). However, these prices seem to be higher than the bids currently being placed, though BigMint noted traded levels concluding at $1,160-1,170/t.

China market overview

China's copper cathode (99.95%) prices was at RMB 73,530/t ($10,326/t) a rise of 2% w-o-w as against RMB 72,045/t ($10,117/t) in the previous week.

Trades, offers this week

• Copper Millberry from Australia - 98.5-99% LME CFR China.
  
  
• Copper CLOVE No. 1 (99.99%) heard from Australia to CFR Mundra at 97.5-98% LME; to China at 96.597%.
  
  
• Copper CLOVE No. 2 (98%) from Australia to CFR Mundra at 96.597% LME; to China at 95.5-96%.
  
  
• Copper Candy Berry heard from Australia to CFR China at 97-97.25% LME.
  
  
• Copper Brass Honey (2%) from Australia to CFR Mundra at 61% LME.
  
  
• Meatballs (20%) from USA- $1,780-1790/t CFR Mundra.
  
  
• Copper Mix Motors from USA - $1,170/t CFR Mundra.
  
  
• Burnt Copper imported from USA - 96.25-97% CFR Mundra.
  
  
• Millberry from USA and UAE - 98.5-99% CFR Mundra.
  
  
• TALK from USA - 52-52.5% CFR Mundra.
  
  
• Birch Cliff from USA - 92% offers; 91.5% bids.
  
  
• Birch Cliff from UAE - 91.5-91.75% CFR Mundra.
  
  

Outlook

Copper prices in the domestic market are expected to remain strong in the near term. However, trading activity is currently slow but might increase after the monsoon recedes in the western and northern regions.