India: Domestic finished stainless steel prices see divergent trends

• Demand stays weak, uptick expected post-Jan'25
  
  
• Flats see tight supply, imports detained at ports
  
  

Indian finished stainless steel prices witnessed mixed trends this week, as market activity remained subdued despite elections concluding in the Mumbai region.

Domestic finished flats prices hold largely steady

BigMint's benchmark assessments for stainless steel (304 series) hot-rolled coils (HRCs) stood stable at INR 179,000/tonne (t) ex-Mumbai.

In the domestic finished flats segment, prices moved down marginally this week. According to BigMint's assessment, SS316 HRCs were at INR 319,000-320,000/t ex-Mumbai, down INR 2,000/t w-o-w.

A trader stated, "Stainless steel demand remains sluggish despite the conclusion of the elections. Buying interest is likely to persist at this pace through 2024. An uptick is expected only after January 2025."

Sources informed BigMint, "In the stainless steel flats segment, particularly the 200 series, a material shortage has emerged, as imported consignments remain stuck at ports, having been detained by Indian authorities. While the containers are expected to be released soon, there is no definitive timeline yet. Once the materials are cleared and availability improves in the domestic market, a temporary collapse is expected, likely lasting 10-15 days."

Finished longs prices see mixed trends

BigMint's benchmark assessment for stainless steel 304L (25-100 mm) black round bars was at INR 180,000/t ex-Mumbai, down by INR 6,000/t w-o-w.

Meanwhile, SS 316L black round bars stood at INR 290,000-291,000/t ex-Mumbai, down by INR 5,000/t. Prices of SS 316L bright bars stood at INR 310,000-311,000/t ex-Mumbai, up by INR 4,500/t.

SS 304 wire rods (5-16 mm) in Mumbai were recorded by BigMint at INR 162,000-163,000/t.

A manufacturer stated, "Nickel prices are currently trending lower, reflecting subdued global demand, while sales activity has slowed over the past 2-3 weeks, affecting market momentum. Stainless steel inventory levels remain average to above-average across markets, as weak global sentiments and uncertainties weigh on confidence. The ongoing decline in imported prices continues to pressure local markets. Further hindering pricing stability are concerns over a supply glut, driven by overproduction."

LME nickel prices inch up despite stable stocks

At the time of reporting, three-month LME nickel prices were at $16,010/t, marking a 1% increase from the previous week's $15,900/t. Meanwhile, nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained stable w-o-w at 158,950 t.

Chinese prices edge down

In China, domestic stainless steel prices for 304-grade cold-rolled coils (CRCs) stood at RMB 14,000/t ($1,930/t) exw, down by RMB 300/t ($42/t) w-o-w, while FOB prices of 304-grade CRCs were at $2,081/t.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices inched down by INR 12,000/t ($142/t) this week, in comparison to the previous assessment on 22 November. Prices remained largely stable, as global and domestic markets did not experience any major variations.

As per BigMint's assessment on 27 November, ferro molybdenum in India stood at INR 2,549,000/t ($30,200/t) exw.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 107,150/t exw-Jajpur, down by INR 1,550/t w-o-w.

Outlook

Stainless steel prices are expected to stay range-bound, influenced by fluctuations in LME nickel prices. Domestic trading activity is likely to remain muted, with market participants predicting low to moderate engagement.