India: Copper scrap imports drop m-o-m in Aug'24; semis witness gain

India's copper scrap imports experienced a slight 3.7% m-o-m decline, with August's volumes at 32,770 tonnes (t) compared to July's 34,000 t. This dip suggests a possible moderation in demand and preference for imports of substitutes such as cathodes and anodes, which saw an m-o-m rise.

LME copper prices decline m-o-m in Aug'24

The three-month average of LME copper prices stood at $9,120/t in August 2024, a decline of 4.3% m-o-m as against $9,530/t in July 2024.

Despite the price drop, imports decreased, owing to lower demand in India for raw materials. Additionally, direct imports of semi-finished materials pulled down scrap volumes.

A source highlighted, "The recent resumption in China's copper imports from Pakistan, Australia, and Germany has contributed to lower copper scrap imports in India. As port disruptions at Damaiyu ease after months of delays, China's demand for motors and specific copper grades, including millberry, candy berry, cloves, and birch cliff from Australia and the western regions, has surged. This shift in supply focus towards China has led to tighter availability of copper scrap in the global market."

Copper scrap imports witness mixed trends across grades

Imports of brass honey, one of the major scrap grades, witnessed a decline of 9.7% m-o-m from 12,569 t in July to 11,349 t in August. Similarly, druid, another prominent grade, recorded a marginal drop of 0.9% m-o-m from 6,968 t to 6,902 t over the same period.

The birch grade declined by a more substantial 7.5% m-o-m, from 5,072 t in July to 4,690 t in August. On the positive side, berry copper scrap experienced an impressive 21.0% m-o-m increase to 3,371 t in August from 2,785 t in the previous month.

Another grade, barley, saw a 7.3% m-o-m increase in imports, which rose from 2,119 t in July to 2,274 t in August. Lastly, the category marked as others, which includes miscellaneous grades of copper scrap, declined 7.1% m-o-m from 4,509 t in July to 4,187 t in August.

Imports from Saudi Arabia, US rise

Saudi Arabia saw a significant surge, with copper scrap exports to India rising by 29.6% m-o-m from 4,661 t in July to 6,042 t in August. Exports from the US also moved up, by 20.0% m-o-m from 3,436 t in July to 4,121 t in August. Germany, meanwhile, witnessed a slight decline of 1.1% m-o-m, going from 3,193 t to 3,158 t over the same period. Meanwhile, the UK registered the largest drop, with exports falling 7.5% m-o-m to 3,504 t in August from 3,787 t in July.

India's cathode, anode imports record sharp hikes

Imports of semi-finished copper products showed significant variability across different categories. However, overall, imports increased by 35% m-o-m to 60,920 t in August. This sharp increase highlights the country's escalating demand and reliance on copper cathodes.

Cathodes: Imports of cathodes rose notably, increasing by 25.1% m-o-m from 26,571 t in July to 33,245 t in August. This increase indicates robust demand and potential expansion of production activities that rely on cathode materials.

Anodes: The most substantial growth was seen in the imports of anodes, which surged by 60.2% m-o-m from 16,492 t in July to 26,414 t in August. This trend suggests a sharp rise in refining and smelting activities that utilise anode materials.

Others: Imports of other semi-finished products fell by 44.2% m-o-m, from 1,791 t in July to only 999 t in August.

Billet: Billet imports saw the most dramatic increase, by 200% m-o-m from 88 t in July to 265 t in August.

Copper cathode exports from Japan, Zambia jump m-o-m

Japan saw a remarkable rise of 91.3% m-o-m, with copper cathode exports to India jumping from 13,424 t in July to 25,674 t in August. Meanwhile, Zambia's exports experienced a 24.3% m-o-m increase, rising from 16,546 t in July to 20,564 t in August. In contrast, the Democratic Republic of Congo saw exports drop by 42.6% m-o-m, from 13,091 t in July to 7,521 t in August.

Outlook

Looking forward, imports of refined copper cathodes are anticipated to remain elevated. Despite a rise in domestic production, India's consistently high import levels, particularly for refined cathodes, highlight a strong and increasing demand for copper, fuelled by the growth of industrial and infrastructure projects.