India; Copper prices remain rangebound w-o-w; imported scrap prices show marginal uptick

Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 753,000/tonne ex-Delhi, firm w-o-w, while copper motors mix scrap prices increased by 2.7% w-o-w.

Prices of secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were at INR 798,000/t ex-Delhi, down 0.6% w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices stood at INR 810,000/t, down 1% w-o-w.

A producer observed, "The copper market remains subdued as semi-finished product manufacturers have scaled back purchasing activity after securing sufficient materials post-monsoon. With adequate stock for production, many are delaying further purchases in anticipation of potential price declines".

Market activity has primarily been driven by need-based buying, with mills also slowing their procurement as the year-end approaches".

Global copper market overview

The three month LME prices were at $9,014/t, almost stable w-o-w.

Copper demand in India remains subdued, while China has ramped up its copper purchases, particularly from suppliers in Pakistan and Australia. This surge in China's buying activity has drawn significant attention in global markets.

Sources stated "However, Thailand appears to offer more competitive pricing for copper, especially for copper motors, with prices approximately $50/t higher than those in India, according to sources. Additionally, lower freight costs from Australia to Thailand are incentivizing Australian suppliers to prioritize shipments to Thailand, combining the advantages of better pricing and reduced logistics expenses".

Sources informed, "In China, Japanese suppliers are offering copper-clad copper conductors (a blend of brass, tin, and impurities) at a $50/t premium over LME cash prices, with recent transactions settling at $40/t premiums".

Market activity has been subdued over the past week, as several traders have paused operations after meeting their annual sales targets in the spot market.

While trading activity may pick up in December for next year's deliveries, expectations for a significant rise in spot premiums remain low. Many trading houses are anticipated to clear inventories as part of year-end accounting practices.

Copper scrap imports

Copper scrap imports declined m-o-m, dropping from 32,770 t in September 2024 to 27,995 t in October 2024, representing a decrease of approximately 15%.

Global supply-demand scenario

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports a 4.1% rise in global refined copper production from January to September 2024, driven by a 4% increase in both primary and secondary production. China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), contributing 54% of global output, led the growth. China's production grew by an estimated 5.5%, supported by new and expanded smelters and refineries.

Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, reported a 1.2% decline in September production to 232,423 t, while its government revised 2024 output expectations to 2.8 mnt, down from 3 mnt.

Price trends

• BigMint's assessment of USA origin copper motor mix were at $1,130/t, a rise by $30/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Copper motors Australia to CIF Thailand , sold mix material at $1100/t and USA to Thailand at $1,185/t.
  
  
• Copper motors mix Australia sold CIF Pakistan at $1,160/t.
  
  
• Meat balls 20% Australia To CIF Mundra at $1,775-1,800/t.
  
  

Outlook

Copper prices in the domestic market are expected to remain subdued, with minimal fluctuations, as current buying activity is largely need-based. On the international front, the market's performance will be closely watched with China's impending removal of export tax rebates on copper and other commodities, effective December 1, 2024. This policy shift, coupled with the upcoming new year, could drive new price discoveries in global markets.