India: Copper prices continue to rise w-o-w following LME gains

Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 761,000/tonne ex-Delhi, up 1.7% w-o-w, while copper motors mix scrap prices moved up w-o-w to $1,150/t following LME prices which rebounded to over $9,300/t levels, up $140/t w-o-w.

Secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were assessed at INR 808,000 per tonne (ex-Delhi), reflecting a 0.7% weekly increase. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices rose by 0.9% to INR 835,000/t.

The local market is experiencing reduced trading activity as LME prices have risen sharply, leading buyers to bid lower. Some yard owners chose to hold their stocks back, as bids were lower, but decided to sell when LME prices reached $9,200/t, securing good returns.

Activity in the local market has been largely driven by need-based purchases. Mills have scaled back on procurement, with many participants choosing to wait for the upcoming 2025 Budget before making further decisions.

Global copper market overview

A market source noted, "China currently offers more competitive pricing for copper, especially for copper cables, with rates approximately $70-80/t higher than India. Favourable freight costs from Australia to China further support this trend, with suppliers prioritising shipments to China and Thailand over India."

There is speculation about a potential European Union export ban on copper motors, while China actively purchases high-quality copper from Australia.

Deals have been reported for Copper DRUID scrap from Australia to CFR Chennai: High-grade (94% LME), Mid-grade (92% LME) & Low-grade (88% LME)

Additionally, Candy Berry (Australia, 97%) is sold at 98% LME to China, while Birch Cliff (92% LME) has also been sold to China at competitive rates.

This increased activity has driven up copper prices for both imported and domestic markets, with demand remaining strong as China actively copper purchases after a prolonged period.

Additionally, some Indian players are exploring overseas markets, particularly for burnt copper.

China

China's domestic copper stocks are expected to rise as downstream buyers exit the market for the Lunar New Year holiday starting 28 January. Stocks may grow by 250,000 t during January-March, matching last year's increase.

China's copper cathode net imports increased by 3.6% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons in 2024, driven by higher domestic demand. Industry estimates indicate copper demand grew by 2-4% compared to the previous year.

Global refined copper production rises

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that global refined copper production grew 3.7% in the first eleven months of 2024 (January-November). Both primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning) and secondary production (from scrap) increased by 3.9% during this period.

Outlook

Domestic copper prices are expected to remain stable with minimal fluctuations in the near term. Current market activity is primarily driven by immediate needs, as participants wait for policy directions from the Union Budget 2025.