India: Coking coal imports rise 31% y-o-y in May'21
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India's coking coal imports rose substantially in May'21 by 31.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to around 4.74 million tonnes (mn t), CoalMint's latest vessel lineup data reveals.
Simultaneously, however, the country's pulverised coal injection (PCI) import shipments decreased by 18.9% m-o-m to 1.11 mn t in May'21, as against 1.37 mn t in Apr'21.
Nevertheless, Indian spot buyers are expected to retreat to the sidelines, with Australian coking coal and PCI prices moving up fast and major steel mills having already stocked up for Jun-Jul'21.
India continues benefitting from China's ban on Australian coking coal
Following China's ban on Australian coking coal since mid-October last year, the threat of excess supply had weighed on prices, thereby reducing the production cost of steelmakers using the blast furnace route in India.
Barring weather-related supply disruptions, Australian premium hard coking coal (HCC) prices would be hovering below $200/tonne (t) CNF India for now.
India's coking coal imports from Australia registered a 2.7% m-o-m reduction in the last month of May to 3.73 mn t.
Indian inbound shipments of coking coal from the US and Canada surged remarkably last month whereas shipments from Indonesia, Mozambique and Russia fell by considerable volumes contrasted with the previous month of April.
The following table presents a detailed country-wise break-up of the monthly coking coal import data.
| Origin | May'21 | Apr'21 | M-o-M Change |
| Australia | 3,731,228 | 3,834,070 | -2.68% |
| USA | 408,059 | 155,628 | 162.20% |
| Mozambique | 151,293 | 167,925 | -9.90% |
| Canada | 315,045 | 159,118 | 97.99% |
| Indonesia | 131,641 | 213,358 | -38.30% |
| Russia | 176,533 | ||
| TOTAL | 4,737,266 | 4,706,632 | 0.65% |
Quantity in tonnes (t)
Current market scenario and near-term outlook
The Indian market has been lately observing a considerable decrease in enquiries for seaborne coking coal, while spot transactions were relatively limited other than existing long-term contracts.
Indian buyers are mostly refraining from immediate procurement of seaborne coking coal cargoes in hopes that offers could decline further.
Nevertheless, seaborne coking coal sellers are targeting the Indian market where buyers are finally showing an interest and are receptive to spot fixed-price offers, having sat on the sidelines as of late.
The Indian steel market sentiment was relatively steady last month while price expectations for seaborne coking coal were lifted amid the strength seen in domestic coking coal prices of all grades.
Traders anticipate that imported coking coal demand would pick up soon on restocking needs, as the country's steel plants have been operating at optimum blast furnace capacity levels in recent months.
Full-scale demand revival for spot purchases of seaborne coking coal by Indian steel mills will likely take a while and is anticipated to start showing signs of robust growth in the next quarter at the earliest.
