India: Coking coal imports fall 29% m-o-m in Aug'21; PCI rises 40%
India’s coking coal imports declined by 28.5% to 4.12 million tonnes (mn t) in Aug’21, compared with 5.76 mn t in Jul’21, CoalMint’s vesse...
India's coking coal imports declined by 28.5% to 4.12 million tonnes (mn t) in Aug'21, compared with 5.76 mn t in Jul'21, CoalMint's vessel lineup data reveals -- Australia accounted for the bulk of the fall (down by 30%).
Simultaneously, however, the country's pulverized coal injection (PCI) import shipments increased by 40.0% m-o-m to 1.36 mn t in Aug'21, as against 0.97 mn t in Jul'21.
Despite having ramped up steel production, Indian steel mills largely consumed existing inventories and mostly refrained from fresh procurement amid escalating prices of Australian coking coal.
Country-wise import segregation
India's coking coal imports from Australia registered a 29.5% m-o-m reduction in the last month of August to 3.19 mn t.
Indian inbound shipments of coking coal from the US, Canada, Indonesia, Mozambique and Russia fell by considerable volumes in the last month contrasted with the previous month of July.
The following table presents a detailed country-wise break-up of the monthly coking coal import data.
| Country | Aug'21 | Jul'21 | Change M-o-M | Jan-Aug'21 | Jan-Aug'20 | Change Y-o-Y |
| Australia | 3,186,766 | 4,521,166 | -29.51% | 30,773,696 | 21,316,511 | 44.37% |
| USA | 245,250 | 275,290 | -10.91% | 2,206,665 | 2,735,088 | -19.32% |
| Canada | 174,350 | 234,122 | -25.53% | 1,507,205 | 2,325,333 | -35.18% |
| Indonesia | 78,200 | 125,230 | -37.55% | 1,340,234 | 1,138,379 | 17.73% |
| Mozambique | 116,924 | 152,011 | -23.08% | 1,124,688 | 971,508 | 15.77% |
| Russia | 146,117 | 260,179 | -43.84% | 820,516 | 2,332,029 | -64.82% |
| China | 175,382 | 163,140 | 7.50% | 338,522 | ||
| Others | 31,850 | 59,850 | ||||
| TOTAL | 4,122,989 | 5,762,988 | -28.46% | 38,171,376 | 30,818,848 | 23.86% |
Quantity in tonnes (t)
Current market scenario
The Indian market has been lately observing a considerable decrease in enquiries for seaborne coking coal, while spot transactions were relatively limited other than existing long-term contracts.
Indian buyers are mostly refraining from immediate procurement of seaborne coking coal cargoes in hopes that near-term offers may decline.
Nevertheless, seaborne coking coal sellers are targeting the Indian market where buyers are finally showing an interest and are receptive to spot fixed-price offers, having sat on the sidelines as of late.
The Indian steel market sentiment was relatively steady last month while price expectations for seaborne coking coal were lifted amid the strength seen in domestic coking coal prices of all grades.
Near-term outlook
Australian coking coal export prices are presently underpinned by persistently strong demand from Asian countries, excluding China. The limited availability of prompt coking coal cargoes for near-term deliveries due to logistical issues, including freight and container unavailability and high freight rates, could support coking coal prices over the near term.
Traders anticipate that imported coking coal demand would pick up soon on restocking needs, as the country's steel plants have been operating at optimum blast furnace capacity levels in recent months.
Full-scale demand revival for spot purchases of seaborne coking coal by Indian steel mills will likely take a while and is anticipated to start showing signs of robust growth in the next quarter at the earliest.
