India: Billet exports up 15% m-o-m in Aug'21 on active Chinese buying

India, one of the leading exporters of steel billet, registered a 15% m-o-m rise in its export volumes of the material in Aug'21. The volumes stood at 0.84 million tonnes (mn t) in Aug'21 as compared to 0.73 mn t in Jul'21, as per customs data collated by SteelMint.

Factors that supported Indian billet export bookings:

• Chinese steel production curbs kept demand for imported billets high.
  
  
• Hike in re-bar futures and higher Chinese domestic prices supported imports. Steel billet prices in China's Tangshan region rose to RMB 5,260/t ($813/t), inclusive of 13% VAT towards end-Jul'21 vis-a-vis RMB 4,910/t assessed towards end-Jun'21.
  
  
• Power crisis in Iran, a major billets exporter, due to which several Iranian mills held back their export allocations.
  
  

China largest importer

China, surpassing Indonesia, turned out to be the largest importer of Indian steel billets at 0.33 mn t in Aug'21, a massive increase of 200% compared to the corresponding period last year (CPLY).

Italy emerged as the second-highest importer of steel billets from India in Aug'21 with 0.11 mn t followed by Nepal and Sri Lanka with 0.08 and 0.07 mn t, respectively.

Price trends

SteelMint's assessment for Indian billet (150*150mm, 3SP/4SP) export prices rose to $640-645/t FOB East Coast India in end-Jul'21 after falling to $600-605/t FOB levels in end-Jun'21.

Outlook

Indian billet export deals for end Sept-early Oct shipments have cooled down a bit on bearish steel demand outlook in China on steeper production cuts and sharp volatility in steel futures. Also, the Middle East and Iran-based mills turned active in billet exports last month and have been concluding deals to China, which may slightly lower the dependence on Indian-origin billets.