India: BigMint's iron ore export index rises $8 w-o-w in recent trades

• Prices rebound by $8 this week
  
  
• 200,000 t of export deals from India
  
  
• Global fines and futures offers support Indian fines prices
  
  

BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $8/tonne (t) w-o-w to $91/t FOB east coast on 25 January 2024. A deal of 55,000 t was recorded of Fe 57% grade fines export from the eastern coast of India at $91/t FOB in this publishing window. Few lower alumina content deals of Fe53/54% were also recorded in this week.

Iron ore fines export offers saw an uptick this week after improvements in the economic outlook in China for the near term. However, only a few sellers received decent offers inquiries for lower grade fines while others kept hold of their offers.

A miner from Odisha said: "We had extracted our 75-80% material of EC limit and loading the export cargoes of previous month booking. The seaborne market rebounded this week after facing sluggishness in the last two weeks. We didn't expect more deals this month as buyers looking for cheaper materials. However, ready-to-load cargo is still in demand."

On the other hand, a few Chinese steel sources reported that portside offers in China for Indian iron ore fines (Fe57%) had increased by around RMB 45-50/t ($6-7/t). Today's offers were recorded at around RMB 870-880/t at ($123-124/t) Qingdao port inclusive of all import taxes and port charges.

A trader commented, "The current market dynamics is very unpredictable as heard from a Chinese source that most of the mills booked enough material for restocking. However, they were booked with lower alumina content of around 2-2.5% with decent prices. On the other hand, few traders already sold their material in the last month at higher prices and currently watching the market positions."

As per reports, prices recently improved due to "positive news" from the Chinese government's policy intervention before Lunar New Year. Market players anticipated increased demand due to the holidays and government pronouncements, resulting in higher pricing.

Price indicators:

• One deal was reported this week for fines Fe 57% from the east coast and taken into calculation. Thus, given 50% weightage. For detailed methodology Click here.
  
  
• SteelMint received seventeen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window and thirteen (13) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
  
  

Market highlights:

• W-o-w surge in global iron ore prices: The benchmark Fe 62% fines index increased by around $8/t w-o-w to $136/t CFR China on 24 January. Prices rose amid robust macroeconomic reports supported by active buying for March delivery cargoes. China's central bank's decision to lower the reserve requirement ratio had boosted near-term iron ore prices. The market is reacting to the news, with some restocking cargoes and slowly increasing demand from steel mills.
  
  
• DCE iron ore futures rise w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) contract for May 2024 increased by RMB 39/t ($6/t) to RMB 987/t ($139/t) on 25 January compared to last week. On a d-o-d basis, prices rose by RMB 8 ($1/t) as against RMB 979/t ($138/t).
  
  
• Iron ore port inventory in China increases w-o-w: Iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports rose by 1.9 mnt to 122.2 mnt on 18 January compared to the previous week, according to SteelHome data.
  
  

India's iron ore export shipments were recorded at 954,048 in the third week of January compared to 1,003,710 t in the second week of January, as per vessel line-up data maintained with SteelMint.

Outlook

The fines export market is expected to remain volatile in the coming days following the Lunar holidays in China. However, few more deals from India may conclude in the next week.