India: BigMint's India HRC export offers resume amid recent deals to ME

• Around 25,000 t booked for ME by Indian steel major
  
  
• Indian offers higher than Chinese ones by up to $40/t
  
  

BigMint's India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) resumed after six months amid recent deals. Current prices are at $535/t FOB east coast India. An Indian steel major booked 20,000-25,000 tonnes (t) of HRCs for the Middle East (ME). However, European demand remained subdued due to sluggish market sentiments and ongoing anti-dumping investigations, limiting export volumes to smaller quantities.

Rationale

One confirmed deal (T1) was reported in this publishing window, while five of the seven indicative prices received were considered as T2 inputs.

The final price was an average of T1 and T2 inputs, which stood at $535/t FOB.

CFR prices were converted to FOB by deducting freight costs from the buyer or seller.

Market updates

1. HRC export offers to ME fall w-o-w: Indian HRC export prices to the Middle East fell by $10/t w-o-w to $560/t CFR against $570/t CFR last week, sources informed. Notably, around 20,000-25,000 t of HRCs were booked from India at $560/t CFR ME levels.

Meanwhile, Chinese HRC export offers to ME remained range-bound w-o-w at $530-535/t CFR UAE, amid volatile Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) futures. A deal of around 20,000-25,000 t was heard concluded at $525/t CFR UAE for late November-early December 2024 shipment. Indian export offers are $35-40/t higher than Chinese ones.

Japanese HRC export offers to the ME hovered at around $535/t CFR UAE, a decline of $10/t w-o-w as compared to $545-550/t CFR UAE last week. Similar quantities were also booked from Japan.

2. HRC offers to Europe stable w-o-w: India's HRC export offers to Europe (S275, 3 mm) remained stable at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB, east coast India). However, a deal of around 2,000 t of HRCs was heard concluded at $600/t CFR Antwerp for November shipment.

European HRC prices were stable this week, with weak end-user demand hindering price increases. However, the recent EU import restrictions, ongoing anti-dumping investigations, and potential production cuts could tighten supply and support price recovery in the coming months.

3. China's offers to Vietnam remain range-bound w-o-w: China's HRC (SAE1006) export offers to Vietnam remained range-bound w-o-w at $530-535/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) amid fluctuating SHFE HRC futures. SHFE HRC rose by RMB 103/t ($10/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,590/t ($502/t) from RMB 3,487/t ($488/t) last week. However, d-o-d, prices fell by RMB 13/t ($1/t) from RMB 3,603/t ($504/t).

Outlook

The Indian HRC export market for the Middle East has shown signs of revival, with recent deals and stable export prices. However, the European market remains subdued due to various factors, including weak demand and anti-dumping investigations. Additionally, competitive Chinese offers remain a critical factor in the global market. Overall, the short-term outlook for the global steel market remains cautious.