India: BigMint's coking coal index rises by $6/t on recent deals

• Limited offers from Australian miners push up PHCC tags
  
  
• Rumours of import restrictions weigh on met coke prices

  
  
  

BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $223/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, as of 14 December 2024. The index rose by $6/t against the previous assessment on 30 November, which stood at $217/t CNF India.

Apart from a few spot trades, not many deals were heard in the market, as only a few Australian miners were actively offering cargoes in Indian markets, informed Indian buyers.

"Key Australian miners were seen holding back their offers for India. However, trades to China have been concluded recently," stated a western India-based player.

Rationale

BigMint's coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids.

An 80,000-t Australian PHCC cargo was heard to have been booked by a trader for an eastern India-based blast furnace (BF) mill in the range of $224-225/t CFR India. Sources highlighted that it was possibly of Illawarra-origin. The deal was given a weightage of 50%.

Another deal was recorded earlier in the week for 12,000 t of Moranbah North coal, which was concluded at $215/t CFR by a southern India-based mill, with delivery scheduled for early January. However, this deal was not considered for index computation.

Ten (10) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. All were taken for price calculation and given the balance 50% weightage.

Factors impacting coking coal import prices

Coking coal prices edge up w-o-w: Australian PHCC prices edged up by $3/t w-o-w to $207/t FOB yesterday. Prices rose on decent demand from India and Southeast Asia. Despite limited supply in the market, particularly for premium mid-vol coal, sellers indicated that they planned to withhold cargo until buyers met their price expectations. However, some traders observed that, despite the absence of new supply from miners, existing floating cargoes in the market appear sufficient to meet end-user demand. In China, opportunistic buying interest was reported, mainly from mills in the southern region. However, end-users did not display urgency in their purchasing decisions.

India's imported met coke market turns quiet, domestic prices drop: India's imported met coke market remained quiet this week, without any trades, after active bookings last week. This follows rumours of import restrictions via quotas. Offers from Indonesia were recorded at $250-255/t FOB, while those from China were at $265-275/t FOB, sources informed BigMint. Meanwhile, India's domestic met coke prices dropped significantly this week. As per BigMint's assessment, the 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade fell by INR 1,400/t ($16.49/t) to INR 31,300/t ($368.7/t) exw-Jajpur, while Gandhidham's prices dropped by INR 1,000/t ($11.8/t) to INR 28,400/t ($334.5/t). Market participants attributed the decline to reduced buying interest amid cautious sentiments in steel and allied sectors.

China sees 4th round of price cuts: China's metallurgical coke market saw a price reduction of RMB 50-55/t ($6.9-7.6/t) generally materialise across the country on 9 December, after leading steelmakers in North China's Hebei and East China's Shandong joined their peers' push for lower procurement prices.