India: BigMint's coking coal index inches down amid global cues

• Bid-offer disparity continues to impact trades

  
  
  

• Chinese Lunar New Year holiday pressures prices

  
  
  

BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $207/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 31 January 2025 against $208.5/t CNF on 15 January. The index edged lower amid bearish market sentiments globally.

The wide gap between bids and offers continued to hinder deal activity. Sellers offered material at $215/t CFR India, while buyers looked for levels near $205-210/t, commented a trader.

Rationale-

BigMint's coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids.

An Indian mill booked approximately 40,000 t of Australian PHCC cargo at a price equivalent to $205/t CFR India, for loading in early February 2025. The deal was concluded towards the end of last week. This has been considered for price calculation and given a weightage of 50%.

Eleven (11) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Out of this, eight (8) were considered for price calculation and given 50% weightage.

Factors impacting coking coal import prices

Australian coking coal prices drop: Australian indexed coking coal prices declined since mid-January 2025. PHCC was assessed at $186/t FOB Australia, lower by $8/t. Thin liquidity and limited inquiries from China amid the Lunar New Year holidays kept prices under pressure.

India's met coke prices stay range-bound: Amid improving trades and limited import bookings, India's domestic met coke prices were range-bound this week. As per BigMint's assessment, the 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade stood at INR 33,500/t exw-Jajpur, while Gandhidham's prices were recorded at INR 31,500/t exw. Imports from China and Indonesia remained limited due to the quantitative restrictions, despite their lower CFR prices, while Japan and Australia have no allocations, cited sources.

Outlook

Coking coal prices could stay under pressure next week due to the Chinese holidays, while Indian buying sentiments and bids will become clearer following tomorrow's Budget announcement.