India: BigMint's coking coal index dips $6/t amid slow import bookings

• Market players stay away amid Diwali
  
  
• Falling steel prices weigh on inquiries
  
  

BigMint's index for premium hard coking coal (PHCC) was assessed at $216/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, as of 30 October 2024. The index fell $6/t against the previous assessment on 15 October 2024 of $222/t CNF India.

This week, the seaborne space saw limited import bookings as participants remained absent due to Diwali, a key festival in India. Lower bids and minimal movement were witnessed in the domestic market, with steel prices at a low, but an improvement is expected after Diwali, as demand picks up.

Additionally, a market player commented, "We are actively looking to procure material, but it has been difficult to do so at our target prices."

Rationale

BigMint's coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids.

No confirmed trade was recorded in this publishing window, and thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.

Seven (7) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Six (6) were taken for price calculation and given the balance 100% weightage.

Factors impacting global coking coal prices

Australian coking coal prices up w-o-w: Australian coking coal prices picked up by 3% w-o-w to $204/t FOB yesterday amid expectations of additional Chinese stimulus measures. End-users in China also showed limited interest in procuring forward-delivery cargoes on a fixed-price basis. Uncertainty persists over whether Chinese mills will implement a second round of domestic coke price cuts this week, given mixed market signals. Meanwhile, Indian demand remained low amid festive holidays.

Chinese met coke price cut finds acceptance: China's metallurgical coke producers accepted a price reduction of RMB 50-55/t ($7.02-7.72/t) proposed by steelmakers last week, marking the end of six consecutive price hikes. Market participants are now expecting additional price declines.

Hike in DCE coal futures: On 30 October, China's coking coal futures for January 2025 on the DCE closed at RMB 1,377.5/t as against RMB 1,471/t assessed on 15 October.

Outlook

India's coking coal market remains subdued amid weak steel prices and low import activity. However, demand is expected to recover post-Diwali. Globally, Chinese met coke producers initiated price cuts, and further declines are likely. Market conditions will remain sensitive to Chinese stimulus measures and coal futures trends in the coming weeks.