India: BigMint's iron ore fines export index rises $1/t w-o-w in recent trades

• Low-grade fines discounts remain stable at 18-20%
  
  
• Chinese mills actively purchasing Indian seaborne cargoes
  
  

The Indian iron ore export market witnessed robust activity this week, supported by multiple export deals for January delivery. Overseas buyers, particularly from China, have shown strong interest in Indian fines ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays. This increased buying has kept export prices firm, with sellers targeting over $80/t CFR China for ready-to-load cargoes.

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $1/tonne (t) w-o-w to $67/t FOB east coast, India, on 12 December 2024. Two confirmed deals of 130,000 t fines (Fe55-57%) were recorded from the east coast at $75-79/t CFR China for January delivery at the start of this week.

A miner from Odisha concluded around 110,000 t of Fe57% fines at $78-78.5/t CFR East Coast recently. As per sources, the discount level narrowed for Indian fines in recent deals for Fe57%. Another miner sold a 55,000 t Fe57% cargo at a 19% discount on the global fines index but the deal is yet to be confirmed by the transected parties. Miners' deals were concluded at an 18-19% discount on the global fines index while traders' cargoes received 19-20% for their transactions.

Market participants indicated that discounts for lower-grade fines have remained stable, though a few deals are still under negotiation. As negotiations continue and demand remains robust, India's iron ore export market is poised for a strong finish to the year.

A miner commented: "Indian exporters are optimistic, with bullish market sentiment supporting higher price targets. The market is showing resilience, and we expect prices to breach $80/t in the coming days. We have received premium bids for single-mine cargoes, which have significantly boosted market sentiment and demand."

Chinese spot, futures prices largely stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index remained largely stable w-o-w at $105/t CFR China on 11 December. China's market remained bullish amid positive macroeconomic developments following the 9 December Politburo meeting. The announcement of more active fiscal measures and recent monetary policies fuelled a sharp price hike. However, participants were confused by the sudden spike and, consequently, adopted a cautious approach to trading in the spot market.

Active buying interest from Chinese mills has not only focused on Indian fines but also extended to Australian and Brazilian high-alumina materials. Consequently, port inventories have risen compared to the previous week. Chinese mills are securing raw materials in anticipation of strong post-holiday demand, keeping the export market buoyant.

Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract increased by RMB 12/t ($2/t) w-o-w to RMB 812.5/t ($112/t) on 12 December. However, d-o-d, prices inched up by RMB 10.5/t ($1.5/t) today.

Meanwhile, iron ore inventories at China's major ports increased by 2.05 million tonnes (mnt) to 148.15 mnt on 12 December November compared to last week, according to SteelHome data.

Price indicators

• The deals that were reported have already been considered for the price calculation in the previous biweekly index. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received Fourteen (14) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twelve (12) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 100% weightage.
  
  

Outlook

According to the BigMint analysis, optimistic sentiments will most likely prevail in the iron ore export market in the coming days, with expected pre-holiday restocking by the Chinese steel mills.