India: BigMint's iron ore fines export index remains stable

• Around 250,000 t iron ore export deals concluded
  
  
• Market activity slows due to Lunar holidays
  
  

The iron ore fines export market witnessed firm price trends in the latest trading session, with several deals concluded at expected transaction levels. Exporters were actively participated in finalizing shipments before the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, driven by high market confidence. However, trading activity has slowed, and the market currently lacks participation.

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index remained largely stable w-o-w at $67.5/t FOB east coast, India, on 30 January 2025. Three deals of around 175,000 t Fe57% fines were recorded at $64-67/t FOB east coast in this publishing window. Another deal of 80,000 t iron ore fines was recorded from the western coast at a 20-25% discount recently through an export tender.

Market participants reported that Indian iron ore fines for post-holiday deliveries prompted buyers to secure procurement in advance. Seaborne deals for Fe57% fines were majorly concluded at an 18-20% level discount on the global fines index.

A trader from Odisha commented: "We observed strong interest in ready-to-load cargo before the holidays, and miners also received premiums due to limited availability. There was a rush to close deals at firm prices, but now the market has turned quiet, awaiting clarity post-holiday."

The procurement of raw materials by Chinese mills has completely stopped from the sea market amid the ongoing Lunar holiday started on 29 January.

A miner informed on the current market dynamics, "Currently, no new offers or trades have been reported. The market is expected to resume activity after the Lunar New Year. We anticipate clearer sentiment, which will determine price trends for the upcoming deals."

Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines remained stable w-o-w to $105/t CFR China on 28 January. Procurement activities in the physical market have noticeably slowed down ahead of the holidays, as most market participants are away, according to sources. However, the paper market continues to experience fluctuations due to the spillover effects from news regarding a property developer in China.

Price indicators

• Two (2) deals were reported in this publishing window and only one was considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received thirteen (13) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twelve (12) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 50% weightage.
  
  

Outlook

According to BigMint's analysis, the market sentiments for exports will become clearer next week post CNY holidays as market activity is currently limited or on halt.