India: BigMint's iron ore fines export index remains firm before Chinese Lunar holidays

• Aggressive trade activity seen before the Lunar holidays
  
  
• Stable discount level for Fe57% fines deals
  
  

The Indian iron ore fines export market has maintained an optimistic sentiment in the run-up to the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Active seaborne trades were observed as exporters and buyers rushed to conclude deals before the holiday lull.

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $1.5/t w-o-w to $67.5/t FOB east coast, India, on 23 January 2025. Three deals of around 165,000 t Fe57% fines were recorded at $75-77/t CFR China this week. Another two deals of 155,000 t Fe55-56% fines were recorded at $60-64/t FOB East Coast, India.

A trader commented: "Market reported a rise in transactions at an 18-20% discount, particularly for post-holiday delivery cargos. This being the last trading week before the holidays, both buyers and sellers are working swiftly to finalise deals."

A few miners recently sold multiple cargo shipments at premium prices; however, the involved parties have not yet confirmed these deals. The single mine material cargo were reported sold at $78.5/t CFR China basis, which has boosted market confidence. Discounts for miner cargoes are currently hovering around 17.5-18% relative to global indices.

Demand for lower-grade Indian fines remained strong over the past two weeks, with trade volumes surging. Exporters with ready-to-load cargo leveraged this demand, selling their material at current discounted levels. The seaborne market saw a good response for lower-grade fines due to competitive pricing and high demand from traders stocking for future needs.

A miner informed about the current market dynamics, "Chinese steel mills have largely completed raw material inventory stocking, with a few mills entering temporary shutdowns for the holiday season. The market sentiment remains positive, as mills will likely restock aggressively after the holidays."

Chinese spot prices rise, futures stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index increased by $3/t w-o-w to $104/t CFR China on 22 January. The uptick was attributed to improved market sentiment driven by recent macroeconomic developments. The US announcement to delay additional tariffs on Chinese imports boosted confidence, while a stronger Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar further bolstering the outlook.

Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract remained largely stable w-o-w at RMB 801.5/t ($110/t) on 23 January. Furthermore, d-o-d, prices remained unchanged.

Price indicators

• Two (2) deals were reported in this publishing window and one was considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received sixteen (16) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and thirteen (13) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 50% weightage.
  
  

Outlook

According to BigMint's analysis, the deals currently under negotiation are expected to be concluded in a few days, as market participants are preparing for the Lunar holidays. Starting next week, the seaborne market will experience a lack of participants for the following two weeks. According to reports, the Chinese Lunar holiday begins on January 29.