India: BigMint's iron ore fines export index opens stable post-Lunar holidays

• Deals remain muted in sea-borne market
  
  
• Price clarity expected from next week
  
  

Iron ore export prices remained largely stable post-Chinese holidays as market sentiments improved with the gradual return of buyers. Exporters are holding back deals, awaiting price clarity before making transactions.

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $0.5/t w-o-w to $68/t FOB east coast, India, on 6 February 2025. A deal of 80,000 t of iron ore fines (Fe56-57%) was concluded from the eastern coast at $66/t FOB in this publishing window.

Global fines and spot indices showed mixed trends, reflecting a lack of clarity in the market. A few export tenders were conducted from India's west coast for lower-grade material, but buyer response remained subdued. Traders expect demand to strengthen in the coming week on an expected pick-up in purchasing activity.

An exporter from the eastern coast commented: "We see a positive shift in sentiment, but buyers are cautious about committing to large volumes until prices are clearer. We are holding back the deals as we want a clearer picture to emerge on prices, which may happen from next week onwards."

Meanwhile, discounts on miner cargoes were assessed at 17.5-18%, while traders in the sea market secured higher discounts of 19-20% on the global indices.

A trader said, "The prices have been increased, but exporters are yet to gain confidence in their trading activity, as market movement is slow. There is still some hesitation, but as steel margins improve, procurement will also possibly rise."

Participants are closely monitoring global price trends to gauge the sustainability of the recent uptick in iron ore prices.

Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines prices in China remained stable w-o-w at $104.5/t CFR on 5 February. Sentiment was mixed over potential supply disruptions due to cyclones impacting Rio Tinto's western Australia operations. While concerns over supply tightness surfaced, sufficient inventories at Chinese ports helped offset immediate risks.

DCE iron ore futures rise: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract opened at RMB 817/t ($112/t) on 6 February, rising by RMB 16/t ($3/t) d-o-d against RMB 801/t ($110/t) seen yesterday.

China's portside fines prices up w-o-w: Chinese sources said that Qingdao's portside offers for Indian fines (Fe 57%) rose by RMB 20/t ($2.5/t) w-o-w to RMB 635/t ($87/t) on 6 February, inclusive of all import taxes and port charges.

Price indicators

• One (1) deals were reported in this publishing window and considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received nineteen (19) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twelve (12) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 50% weightage.
  
  

Outlook

According to BigMint's analysis, market sentiments are expected to provide a clearer picture in the next few days, and exporters may find a tradable value for low-grade fines. However, active trading in the market has not yet resumed.

A trader said: "The market lacks clear direction, and I expect it will remain range-bound in the near term. Currently, there are few buyers and sellers available in the seaborne market."