India: BigMint's coking coal index rises $7/t on global cues

- Coking coal imports up 10% y-o-y in H1FY'25

- Indian met coke prices find support

- Chinese mills accept fifth round of coke price hike

BigMint's index for premium hard coking coal (PHCC) was assessed at $222/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, as of 15 October 2024. The index rose by $7/t against the previous assessment on 30 September 2024 of $215/t CNF India.

A source based in Singapore mentioned about hearing an inquiry from an Indian mill for a 20,000 t cargo. However, a few tenders from Australian miners are expected to provide further clarity.

"I believe the increase in Australian coking coal export offers is largely influenced by positive Chinese sentiment following recent stimulus measures. However, in my view, Indian steel mills currently hold surplus stocks," said an Indian mill source.

Rationale- BigMint's coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids.

No confirmed trade was recorded in this publishing window and thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.

Ten (10) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Nine (9) were taken for price calculation and given the balance 100% weightage.

Factors impacting global coking coal prices

Australian coking coal prices rangebound- Australian premium hard coking coal trended up slightly on a fortnightly basis at $208/t FOB on 14th Sep'24 as against $204.75/t FOB on 27 Sept. The prices remained in a narrow range as mixed signals emerged following the reopening of the Chinese market after the Golden Week holiday.

China's met coke prices rise as demand firms up- China's metallurgical coke market continued its upward trend last week, recording a fifth price hike on the first working day after the National Day holiday's. Some coke producers are optimistic that steel mills will eventually agree to further price adjustments. Starting October 15, mainstream mills in Tangshan will raise met coke prices by RMB 50/ton for wet quenched and RMB 55/ton for dry quenched types

Hike in DCE coal futures - On 15 October, China's coking coal futures for January 2025 on the DCE closed at RMB 1,471/t as against RMB 1,402/t assessed on 27 September.

Notably, India's coking coal imports in the first half of FY'25 (April-September 2024) stood at 32 million tonnes (mnt), an increase of 10.34% compared to 29.0 mnt during the same period in FY'24. September accounted for 3.8 mnt of this total. According to government data, India's crude steel production touched 72.83 mnt, marking a growth of 3.7% y-o-y. This increase was the key driver of coking coal demand.