India: BigMint coking coal index rises by $5/t in recent 50,000-t deals

• Buying improves post-festive Diwali holidays
  
  
• 3rd met coke price cut expected in China
  
  

BigMint's index for premium hard coking coal (PHCC) was assessed at $221/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, as of 15 Nov 2024. The index has risen by $5 against the previous assessment on 30 October 2024 of $216/t CNF India.

This publishing window saw resumption in trade activities after subdued bookings seen during the festive holidays of Diwali in end October 2024.

Deals recorded by BigMint:

• A deal of 30,000t of Illawara coking coal was concluded at about $222/t CNF WCI last week.
  
  
• Another deal of 20,000t Australian PHCC was concluded at about $218/t CNF India by a southern India based mill towards last weekend
  
  

Rationale:

BigMint's coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids.

Two confirmed trades were recorded in this publishing window, and thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 50% weightage.

Five (5) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Three (3) were taken for price calculation and given the balance 50% weightage.

Factors impacting global coking coal prices

Australian coking coal prices range-bound w-o-w: Australian coking coal PHCC prices edged up marginally w-o-w to $206/t FOB yesterday. The Asian FOB metallurgical coal market held steady within a narrow range as market participants looked for clearer pricing signals, while the CFR China market softened due to a weakening yuan. The market is currently range-bound, with limited upward momentum. In the Chinese market, demand for forward-delivery cargoes was limited as mills aim to maintain low inventory levels to minimise the risk of potential declines in domestic prices. Also, Indian buying of coking coal remained muted

Third round of price cut awaited for Chinese coke: Chinese steel mills in Tangshan have implemented the second consecutive cut in met coke procurement prices, of RMB 50-55/t ($7-7.5/t), effective 11th November. Reduced hot metal output brought down bids for met coke. Prices in Hebei's Tangshan stood at RMB 1,760/t. Discussions about a potential third round of coke price cuts in China surfaced on 13 November, with expectations that mills would implement the reductions starting 14 November, aiming to finalise them by the end of the week.

India's coking coal imports in October 2024 rose 16% m-o-m to 4.4 million tonnes (mnt) from 3.8 mnt in September. The increase reflects growing demand from India's steel sector and was led by notable shifts in supply from countries such as Russia and Australia. Australia remained India's primary supplier of coking coal, with imports rising 26% to 2.1 mnt in October from 1.7 mnt in September. Imports from Russia saw a significant 71% uptick to 0.8 mnt in October from 0.5 mnt in September. Mozambique's imports also grew, to 0.5 mnt in October from 0.4 mnt in September 2024.