India: BF rebar trade prices show uptick w-o-w; market awaits mills' prices for Jan'25

• BF mills considering list price hikes for Jan'25
  
  
• IF rebar tags up, but buyers resist higher offers
  
  

Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices witnessed an uptick w-o-w amid an improvement in trade activities across some regions. Additionally, mills are mulling hikes in rebar tags for January 2025 dispatches. New list prices are expected to be announced in the coming days. Additionally, rebar inventories with mills declined by around 30% m-o-m in early January 2025.

Trade-level BF rebar prices rose by INR 300/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 52,600/t ($613/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint's assessment on 3 January 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.

In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 49,500-50,500/t ($577-589/t) FOR Mumbai. Buying activities improved this week, and mills booked volumes at the current prices.

Update on projects

• KEC International secured new orders worth INR 1,073 crore across various sectors, including transmission and distribution (T&D) projects in the Middle East and SAARC regions; civil projects in India's industrial segment; and a JV order for the design, supply, and construction of a passenger ropeway in northeast India.
  
  
• Kalpataru Projects International Limited (KPIL) and its international subsidiaries secured new orders worth INR 1,011 crore, including in the T&D segment overseas, railway projects in India, and buildings and factories (B&F) projects in India.
  
  
• NCC Limited received orders valued at INR 349.7 crore in December 2024. These were related to the building division.
  
  
• KEC International secured new orders worth INR 1,097 crores in its T&D business. Orders include project for setting up of 400 kV Transmission lines & Supply of towers, hardware and poles across the United States, Mexico and Brazil.
  
  

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices rise w-o-w: Induction furnace (IF) rebar prices also witnessed an uptick w-o-w despite slow buying activities. In Mumbai, IF rebar trade prices stood at INR 47,500/t ($553/t) exw on 3 January 2025, up by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w.

Manufacturers raised prices owing to strong bookings last week. However, buyers resisted procuring material at these higher prices, leading to a bid-offer disparity, which weighed on market sentiments. Inventory idling time was at around 10-12 days across markets.

The price gap between BF-IF rebars stood at INR 5,000/t ($58/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars command a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Raw material prices drop w-o-w: BigMint's weekly Odisha iron ore fines Fe62% prices edged lower by INR 50/t ($0.6/t) w-o-w to INR 5,250/t ($61/t) ex-mines on 28 December. Odisha's iron ore market saw a slight price drop due to a decline in sponge and semi-finished prices in central-eastern India. Trade activity remained moderate, driven by need-based buying from steelmakers.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices declined by $14/t w-o-w to $204/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook

Mills are considering increasing list prices for January 2025 dispatches. This is expected to support trade prices in the near term.