India: BF rebar trade prices remain range-bound w-o-w in subdued market

• BF market stays wary, awaits mills' Feb prices
  
  
• IF rebar tags increase w-o-w as trade improves
  
  

Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices remained range-bound w-o-w amid subdued domestic demand, with market participants largely unwilling to engage in trades. Most players are waiting for mills' price announcements for February 2025 sales.

Notably, a leading PSU steel mill cut its list prices recently, sources informed BigMint.

Trade-level BF rebar prices were stable w-o-w at INR 52,200/tonne (t) ($602/t) exy in Mumbai in particular, as per BigMint's assessment on 31 January 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.

In the project segment, prices dropped w-o-w to around INR 48,000-49,000/t ($554-565/t) FOR Mumbai. In recent times, spending on infrastructure and construction projects has reduced considerably, particularly in northern and southern India. This has led to limited inquiries, which has pressured tags.

Update on projects

• G R Infraprojects Limited emerged as the L-1 bidder for an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) tender for the gauge conversion of a 38.9 km track, along with associated works such as earthwork, bridge building, the development of station amenities, erecting retaining walls, and track linking.
  
  
• The renewables business of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) was selected as the preferred EPC contractor for Masdar's 24/7 solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage gigascale project in Abu Dhabi, which is set to deliver 1 gigawatt (GW) of baseload power.
  
  
• L&T secured an order to build Uzbekistan's first AI-enabled, sustainable 10-megawatt (MW) data centre in Tashkent, focusing on advanced technology, energy efficiency, and robust data security.
  
  
• L&T's Minerals and Metals vertical secured a repeat order for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) of advanced freight handling facilities in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, as part of its greater engagement in railway projects across India and the Middle East.
  
  

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices rise w-o-w: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices increased w-o-w amid improved trading activities. As per BigMint's assessment, IF rebar prices edged up by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 47,100/t ($545/t) exw-Mumbai.

As the week saw better sales volumes, manufacturers either increased prices or reduced trade discounts, though this varied from region to region. This follows 2-3 weeks of reduced procurement by traders. Additionally, a rise in billet and sponge iron prices lent support to finished steel tags. Inventory idling time reduced to around 10-12 days across markets.

The price gap for BF-IF rebars stood at INR 5,000-5,500/t ($58-63/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars command a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Raw material prices edge lower w-o-w: BigMint's Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index fell INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 4,900/t ($57/t) on 25 January 2025. Iron ore prices fell, as miners reduced their offers following a drop in bids at the recent auction from Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC). The widening gap between bids and offers in the domestic market also weighed on tags. While some need-based trades occurred at the updated offers, overall volumes remained low, as buyers remained cautious.

Additionally, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices fell by $4/t w-o-w to $201/t CNF Paradip.

3. National Highway construction: India's National Highway (NH) construction stood at 5,853 km during April-December 2024. NH construction stood at 1,092 km in December 2024, as per data released by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH).

Outlook

Market participants are waiting for the Union Budget, which is expected to influence trade activities next month.