India: BF-rebar trade prices remain range-bound w-o-w amid slow demand

• IF-grade rebar prices decline w-o-w
  
  
• Raw material prices show mixed trend
  
  

Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices witnessed marginal drop on a weekly basis amid slow buying activities in the domestic market. Meanwhile, limited supplies from a leading state-owned steel mill due to maintenance shutdown at one of its plants, kept prices supported in some markets. Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices edged down w-o-w by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 54,800/t ($649/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint's assessment on 15 November 2024. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.

In the project segment, prices remained stable w-o-w, hovering at around INR 54,000-55,000/t ($640-651/t) FOR Mumbai. Demand from the projects segment was steady this week.

Update on project orders

• Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) secured new orders worth INR 2,273 crores. The orders have been secured in the transmission & distribution (T&D) segment in India and overseas, and in residential projects in India.
  
  
• G R Infraprojects emerged as L-1 bidder in BSNL's Bharat Net Ph?3 (Middle Mile) project.
  
  

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF-rebar prices fall w-o-w: IF-rebar fell on weekly basis amid slow buying activities across major markets during the week. Traders started restocking material, which led to a hike in trade-level prices last week. But later on, buyers resisted purchasing material at higher prices. As a result, manufacturers slashed list prices and also offered discounts to liquidate material owing to slight selling pressure. Inventory idling time increased to 10-15 days across markets. Prices of semi-finish steel and raw materials also witnessed declines this week. Meanwhile, IF-rebar trade prices edged up by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 47,800/t ($566/t) exw-Mumbai. This was essentially because, in Mumbai, IF-mills kept their list prices stable post-Diwali, while at other locations, mills cut their list prices.

The price gap between BF-IF rebars stood at around INR 7,000/t ($83/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars enjoy a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Raw material prices exhibit mixed trends: BigMint's weekly Odisha iron ore fines Fe62% index dipped by INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 5,450/t ($65/t) ex-mines on 9 November 2024. Iron ore prices in Odisha eased after the Diwali festival, driven by increased market buying and inventory build-up. As trade activities resumed, demand surged as buyers moved to replenish their immediate stocks.

Conversely, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged up by $2/t w-o-w to $221/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook

Trade prices of BF-rebars are expected to stay range-bound in the near term amid slow market activities and ongoing material shortages.