India: BF-rebar trade prices drop by INR 300/t ($4/t) w-o-w amid subdued demand
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- IF rebar prices rise w-o-w despite market downturn
- Raw material prices drop w-o-w
Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices witnessed downtrend w-o-w amid subdued demand across markets, marking the eleventh consecutive week of fall in prices. Currently, rebar prices (12-32mm, Fe500D, and Fe550D) in the trade segment have dipped by INR 300/tonne ($4/t) to INR 49,600/t ($591/t) exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
In the projects segment, prices were hovering in the range of INR 47,000-48,000/t ($560-572/t) landed Mumbai basis.
Factors weighing down prices:
1. IF rebar prices up w-o-w despite market downturn: Induction Furnace (IF) rebar manufacturers attempted to raise rebar prices by INR 300-500/t ($4-6/t) across various markets at the start of the week, with trade prices following suit. However, the market, which has been on a downtrend for the past few weeks, has reached three-year lows. Meanwhile, mills have reduced production by 25% due to rising inventories. Prices began to decline later in the week, leading buyers to purchase on a need-only basis. IF-rebar inventories ranged from 12 to 15 days across markets. Trade-level IF-rebar prices rose w-o-w by INR 700/t ($8/t) to weekly average of INR 45,800/t ($546/t) exw-Mumbai.
The monthly average price gap between BF-IF rebars narrowed to around INR 3,500-4,000/t ($42-48/t) ex-Mumbai. It may be noted here that IF-rebars enjoy 65-70% share of the market.
2. Raw material prices drop w-o-w: Prices of key steelmaking raw materials including iron ore and coking coal, dropped w-o-w. BigMint's weekly Odisha iron ore fines Fe62% index dropped by INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 4,300/t ($51/t) ex-mines as on 17 August 2024. Prices inched down amid pressure from declining sponge and finished steel prices.
On the other hand, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices were down by $4/t w-o-w to $219/t CNF Paradip as against $223/t last week.
Outlook
BF-rebar prices are expected to continue trending downward, while IF-rebar prices may remain range-bound in the near term.