IMF keeps global growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 3.2%

MySteel: In its latest World Economic Outlook issued on October 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still expects global growth in 2024 to remain stable yet weak, keeping Its forecast unchanged from its July projection of 3.2% while lowering that for 2025 by a modest 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%.

However, notable revisions have been made within the body of the forecast, according to the IMF, where an upgrade to the forecast for the United States, for example, has offset downgrades to those for other advanced economies-in particular, the major European countries.

US growth in 2024 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point from the July forecast to 2.8%, on account of stronger upturns in consumption and non-residential investment. For 2025, however, the country's growth is anticipated to slow to 2.2% as fiscal policy is gradually tightened and when a cooling labor market is seen as slowing consumption.

Despite persisting weakness in China's real estate sector and low consumer confidence, the country's growth is seen as slowing only marginally this year to 4.8%, largely thanks to better-than-expected net exports. Recent policy measures may provide upside risk to near-term growth, the report added.

Global headline inflation is expected to fall from an annual average of 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.

As disinflation continues, a smooth landing is within reach, the IMF says. However, the report quotes the fund's deputy director of research, Petya Koeva-Brooks, as also warning that the balance of risks is tilted to the downside, citing an escalation of geopolitical conflict, a ratcheting up of trade protectionism, more weakening in labor markets or a renewed bout of financial market turbulence all as possibilities.

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