IEA forecasts record high global coal consumption in 2023, led by China, India, and Indonesia

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global coal consumption will surge to an unprecedented level in 2023, driven by robust demand in emerging and developing economies. The projections indicate a y-o-y increase of 1.4%, surpassing 8.5 billion tonnes (bnt) of coal in 2023.

China, India, and Indonesia, ranking as the top three global coal producers, are anticipated to achieve record-high coal output in 2023. China, responsible for over half of the world's coal demand, is expected to witness a 5% y-o-y increase in 2023. Notably, China imported 427.14 million tonnes (mnt) of coal from January to November 2023, with November's imports reaching 43.51 mnt.

India is set to experience an 8% growth in coal demand in 2023, with coal production already showing a 2% rise to 875.67 mnt from January to November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Coal imports in India also registered a 6% increase in January-November, 2023, reaching 227.5 mnt compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

In a significant development, Southeast Asia's coal consumption is projected to surpass that of the United States and the European Union in 2023. Indonesia, a major player, is expected to achieve an all-time high of 500 million tonnes in coal exports.

While coal consumption is set to grow rapidly in India and Southeast Asia until 2026, China is anticipated to witness a decline in coal usage from 2024 to 2026. This shift is attributed to clean energy promotion efforts, weather conditions, and economic changes. Despite the absence of robust clean energy policies, a 2.3% decrease in coal use is projected by 2026, driven by substantial growth in renewable energy capacity over the next three years.