How did global coking coal trade dynamics change in CY'21?

Global coking coal trade (imports and exports) volumes decreased slightly in CY'21, as per data maintained with CoalMint amidst acute supply crunch observed in most parts of the year.

Key factors responsible for change in coking coal trade dynamics globally:

• China's ban on Australian coal
  
  
• Chinese steel output curbs
  
  
• Coal supply issues in Australia and USA
  
  
• Dramatic price surge
  
  

Import volumes

Coking coal imports of the major countries are estimated at 202.6 million tonnes (mnt) in Jan-Dec'21, down 1.6%.

• India's imports up 7% y-o-y
  
  

India's coking coal import volumes increased by 7.25% to 56.4 mn t in Jan-Dec'21. Australia supplied the highest volumes to India at 45 mnt (up 19.3% y-o-y), followed by USA, Canada and Indonesia. India's pulverised coal injection (PCI) imports surged 210% to 12.4 mn t in CY'21.

With Chinese ban on Australian coal imports in the latter half of 2020, India emerged as the top importer of Australian coking coal given the fact that the country is the second largest steel producer in the world. India's crude steel output is estimated to go up by 17% y-o-y in CY'21.

• Imports into China plunge
  
  

Coking coal imports into China registered a significant drop of around 30% to 51.5 mnt in Jan-Dec'21. Mongolia is the largest supplier at 14.3 mnt followed by Russia at 10.4 mnt and USA at 10.1 mn t.

China's strict policies to restrict steel production to less than the levels of CY'20, ban on Australian coal and higher imported coal prices amidst global supply crunch resulted in notable drop in imports.

• Imports into Japan, South Korea up
  
  

Japan's coking coal imports stood at 43 mnt in Jan-Dec'21, up 8.3% y-o-y while South Korea imported 21.5 mnt in the same period, up marginally by 1.4% y-o-y.

Export volumes

Export volumes by major countries are estimated at 281.5 mnt in CY'21, down 36.2% y-o-y.

• Exports from Australia down marginally
  
  

Coking coal shipments from Australia amounted to 16.54 mnt in CY'21, down 1.4% y-o-y.

India was the largest importer of Australian coking coal last year with 56 mnt, up 28% y-o-y. Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan are the other biggest importers.

Despite the Chinese ban, strong demand from the Asian and European markets helped the country to keep its exports firm in CY'21.

• Shipments from USA, Indonesia, Mongolia drop
  
  

Coking coal export shipments from USA dropped by 7.3% y-o-y to 41 mnt with China being the top importer at 11 mnt (up 581% y-o-y).

Exports from Indonesia fell by 13.8% to 25.5 mn t in CY'21. This was majorly due to poor weather conditions - more-than-expected rains and cyclones in most part of the year.

The shipments from Mongolia recorded a whopping 44% drop to 15.4 mnt in the period under review.

• Exports from Russia rise
  
  

Exports from Russia increased by 30% to 31.6 mnt in CY'21. China is the top importer with 9.15 mnt, up 45% y-o-y, followed by Ukraine, South Korea and Japan.

Amidst China's ban on Australian coal, Russia took advantage of the situation to fill in the gap and increased its exports to China in CY'21.

• China's exports drop sharply
  
  

Exports from China in CY'21 are estimated around 99,853 t, a sizeable 88.5% fall compared to 874,469 t in CPLY. South Korea and Japan are the only importers with 69,422 t and 30,430 t respectively.

Supply shortage in the country due to poor weather, heavy rains, and mining curbs impacted the country's coal output and exports in CY'21.