Global refined copper production increases over 5% during Jan-Apr'24: ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently unveiled preliminary figures that world refined copper production increased by about 5.5% in the first four months of 2024 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 5% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 7%.

The increase in global refined copper production was primarily driven by strong performance in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), thanks to expanded capacity. Production in other regions increased by only 1.2%. Together, China and the DRC contribute approximately 54% of the world's refined copper output.

Chinese refined copper production is estimated to have increased by around 6%, attributed to the startup and expansion of several primary and secondary (from scrap) smelters and refineries.

Mine production

Global copper mine production rose by approximately 4.9% to 7.33 mnt in the first four months of 2024 as against 6.99 mnt in the same period last year, with concentrate production up by 2.9%.

Global mine production in the first four months of 2024 benefited from a recovery from the constrained output in 2023 (primarily in Chile, Indonesia, Peru, and the US) and additional production from mine projects ramping up to capacity, particularly in the DRC.

In Peru, copper mine production increased by 1%, recovering from reduced output at the beginning of 2023 when several mines were affected by local communities' actions. Indonesian output is estimated to have increased by 35%, bouncing back from operational constraints at the Grasberg and Batu Hijau mines in the first quarter of 2023 caused by significant rainfall and landslides. United States' production grew by 9%, primarily due to a recovery from reduced production in the first quarter of last year.

As production at the Cobre Panama mine was suspended in November 2023, there is currently no Panamian output.

World apparent refined copper usage grows by about 4%

Growth in global refined copper usage was primarily driven by robust apparent demand in China, while usage in the rest of the world is estimated to have increased by a modest 1%.

Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) grew by approximately 6.5%, with net refined copper imports into China rising by 28%.

Copper stocks

China's bonded stocks are estimated to have increased by approximately 68,000 tonnes (t) in the first four months of 2024 compared to the end of 2023.

By the end of May 2024, copper stocks at major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 452,478 t, marking an increase of 238,628 t (+112%) compared to the end of December 2023. Stocks at SHFE surged by 941%, while those at COMEX and LME decreased by 14% and 30%, respectively.