Global refined copper production increases about 6% during Jan-Nov'23

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently unveiled Preliminary figures show a global rise of approximately 5.5% in refined copper production during the initial eleven months of 2023.

Primary production, derived from electrolytic and electrowinning processes, increased by around 5%, while secondary production from scrap surged by 7%. The growth in refined production was driven by robust performances in China and the DRC, attributed to expanded capacity, whereas global output in other regions declined by 1%.

However, Chilean total refined copper production experienced a decline of 2.7%, with electrowinning (SX-EW) output dropping by 4.2% and electrolytic production remained unchanged.

Mine production

In the first Eleven months of 2023, global copper mine production saw a modest increase of approximately 1%, reaching 20.121 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 19.955 mnt during the same period last year.

Although global mine production over the first eleven months of 2023 benefitted from some start-ups and expansions, world growth was limited by operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the United States.

Production in Chile declined by 1.5% in the first eleven months, primarily due to the fact that a number of mines in the country were negatively impacted by operational issues, lower grades and reduced water supply due to a drought in the central region.

The output in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is believed to have increased by approximately 6%, primarily due to the expansion of the Kamoa mine and the addition of new or expanded capacity at other mining operation.

In the first half, Indonesia experienced a 7.5% decline in output, primarily attributed to operational challenges at the Grasberg and Batu Hijau mines. The constraints adversely affected production during this period.

Similarly, Panamanian production growth was limited to 3.4%. The Cobre Panama mine faced temporary interruptions earlier in the year due to export restrictions, and production was eventually suspended in November. These factors collectively impacted the overall output growth in Panama.

Global refined copper usage

Between January and November 2023, worldwide refined copper usage rose by 4%. Global refined copper usage growth has been primarily driven by robust demand in China, where apparent demand, excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks, increased by approximately 9%.

Despite a 5% decline in Chinese net refined copper imports, the growth was supported by a significant 13% increase in refined production. However, outside of China, in regions such as the European Union, Japan, and the United States, lower demand contributed to an estimated 2.5% decline in world refined copper usage.

Copper stocks

In the first eleven months of 2023, China's bonded copper stocks are estimated to have risen by approximately 22,000 t compared to the year-end 2022 level, based on the average of estimates provided by two independent consultants. Meanwhile, as of the end of December 2023, copper stocks at major metal exchanges, including LME, COMEX, and SHFE, reached a total of 213,850 t. This marked a 13% increase from the stocks held at the end of December 2022. Notably, stocks decreased at SHFE (-55%) and COMEX (-46%), while they rose at the LME by 87%.