Global refined copper production increases about 5% during Jan'24

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently unveiled preliminary figures which showed a global rise of approximately 5% in refined copper production in January 2024.

Primary production, derived from electrolytic and electrowinning processes, increased by around 4.5%, while secondary production from scrap rose by 9%. The growth in refined production was driven by robust performances in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), attributed to expanded capacity, whereas global output in other regions rose by 0.4%.

However, Chilean total refined copper production experienced a decline of 1%, with electrowinning (SX-EW) output dropping by 3.5% and electrolytic production remained unchanged.

Mine production

The global copper mine production saw a modest increase of approximately 2.5%, reaching 1.82 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 1.78 mnt during the same period last year.

In 2024, global mine production is on the rise, rebounding from reduced or restricted output experienced in 2023, particularly in Chile, Indonesia, and the US. Additionally, increased production is attributed to major mine projects commencing or scaling up to full capacity. Chile saw a modest 0.5% y-o-y increase in production in January, with concentrate output rising by 0.4%.

Furthermore, production at the Cobre Panama mine was halted last November, resulting in the absence of Panamanian output. Chinese production decreased by 5%, primarily due to ongoing ramp-up efforts at the Jiama mine following its suspension in March 2023.

Preliminary data suggested that production in the DRC increased by approximately 9%, primarily due to the expansion of the Kamoa mine alongside new or expanded capacity at other mines.

Global refined copper usage

Preliminary data indicated that apparent refined copper usage worldwide increased by approximately 6% in January 2024. The growth in global refined usage was primarily driven by robust apparent demand in China, while usage in the rest of the world is believed to have decreased.

Chinese apparent demand, excluding changes in bonded or unreported stocks, surged by approximately 12%, with net refined copper imports in China rising by 29%. However, sluggish demand in the EU, Japan, and the US contributed to a slight decline of around 0.1% in refined usage worldwide excluding China.

Copper stocks

In January 2024, the global refined copper balance, considering Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded or unreported stocks), showed a preliminary surplus of approximately 84,000 t. Similarly, adjusting the world refined copper balance for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks also indicated a surplus of roughly the same magnitude.

By the conclusion of February 2024, copper stocks across the primary metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) amounted to 328,873 t, marking a notable increase of 115,023 t (+54%) compared to December 2023. SHFE stocks saw a substantial rise (+486%), while COMEX stocks also increased (+52%), whereas LME stocks experienced a decrease (-27%).