Global lead and zinc market forecast for 2024: ILZSG

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) has provided forecast for preliminary data on the global supply and demand for lead and zinc for 2024.

Refined lead supply and usage

The global demand for refined lead metal is expected to grow by 1.1% to reach 12.80 million tonnes (mnt) this year and is projected to increase by 2.2% to 13.08 mnt in 2024.

European lead demand is predicted to rebound with a 3.7% increase in 2023 after a 3% decline in 2022. This growth will be primarily driven by Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Poland, offsetting a reduction in the Czech Republic. Other countries like India, Mexico, Taiwan (China), and Vietnam are expected to see increased usage, while a decrease is anticipated in the Republic of Korea.

China is expected to experience a 1.9% growth in demand this year and a further 2.4% in 2024. This growth is attributed to the rise in lead-acid battery production, which increased by 13.4% in the first seven months of 2023.

In the United States, apparent usage is forecasted to decline significantly by 6.4% in 2023, but a partial recovery of 3.1% is expected in 2024. By 2024, demand is projected to increase in India, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.

Global lead mine production is forecasted to rise by 3.3% to 4.58 million metric tons (mnt) in 2023 and by 2.9% to 4.71 mnt in 2024. China is projected to increase production by 1.2% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. In 2023, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, India, Kazakhstan, and the United States will contribute to increased output, while in 2024, higher supply will mainly come from Australia, Bulgaria, India, Russia, and Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Refined lead supply is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, driven by growth in Australia, China, India, and Germany, offset by declines in Bulgaria, Italy, the Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom.

Refined zinc supply and usage

Global demand for refined zinc is set to recover, increasing by 1.1% to 13.59 mnt in 2023 and by 2.5% to 13.93 mnt in 2024, following a 4.3% decline in 2022.

In China, zinc usage is expected to rebound by 3% this year after a significant drop in 2022, driven by increased production of galvanized plates, passenger cars, and home appliances. However, the real estate sector's investment remains sluggish. In 2024, Chinese zinc demand is projected to grow by 1.2%.

European demand is forecasted to decline by 1.8% in 2023, led by decreases in Germany, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the United Kingdom, partially offset by expected increases in Italy and Norway.

Zinc usage is expected to rise in India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States but decline in Brazil, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. In 2024, usage is anticipated to increase in Europe, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the United States, and Vietnam.

Global zinc mine production is expected to increase by 3.9% to 12.91 mnt in 2024, following a slight 0.1% rise to 12.43 mnt in 2023. China, India, Mongolia, Peru, and the Russian Federation are set to experience production increases, while declines are anticipated in Australia, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Canada, Sweden, and Ireland.

In 2024, substantial production rises are forecasted in Australia and the Russian Federation, along with increases in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, China, and Mexico. However, production is expected to decline in Ireland, the United States, and Portugal. Global refined zinc metal production is projected to increase by 3.7% to 13.84 mnt in 2023 and by 3.3% to 14.30 mnt in 2024, primarily due to significant growth in China.