Global iron ore shipments may grow by 1.8% y-o-y in Q1

The total volume of iron ore dispatched globally under Mysteel's tracking is expected to be 1.8% higher on year during the first quarter of this year to hit 369 million tonnes (mnt), despite the reduction that it will record compared to the prior quarter, according to Mysteel's latest report.

So far this quarter, Mysteel's monitoring showed that global iron ore shipments already reached 220.8 mnt.

During February, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil met disruptions due to unfavourable weather conditions. For example, the Port of Dampier, in Western Australia, cleared its vessels during 22-23 February to brace for the Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln, as Mysteel Global has reported.

As for Brazil, the delivery of iron ore through rail in Rio de Janeiro in the southern region of the country has been hampered by heavy rainfalls recently, though such an impact may ease in the coming days.

Consequently, the total volume of iron ore shipments dispatched to global destinations from the 19 ports and 16 mining companies in Australia and Brazil under Mysteel's regular survey plunged by 16.1% on week, totaling 20.8 mnt during 19-25 February.

In fact, Q1 is generally the period to witness global iron ore shipments present a seasonal drop from the last quarter of the prior year, Mysteel Global noted. Nevertheless, next month will see miners in Australia and Brazil ramp up shipping iron ore to deliver satisfactory operation results and to fulfil their annual guidance eventually.

In addition, the volume of iron ore sailed from Brazil will increase notably in March compared to a year earlier, given that the level of ore stocks piled at local ports remained high this year due to Vale's record production of the mineral in December 2023, Mysteel's report explained.

Furthermore, Mysteel projected that the 45 Chinese ports it samples will receive a total of 287 mnt of iron ore during this quarter, also rising 5.9% from the corresponding period in 2023, despite the on-quarter fall of 5%.

Consequently, the increasing supply of iron ore to China in the near term may exert some downward risks to the country's domestic prices of imported iron ore, Mysteel Global understands.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.