Global copper production expected to rise in CY23-24 - ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released its market forecast for the world's copper output for 2023 and 2024.

Copper mine production anticipated to rise in 2023: Global copper mine production is anticipated to rise by 3% in 2023 and by roughly 2.5% in 2024. In comparison to the October 2022 projections of the ICSG, the rate of expansion of global copper mine production in 2023 has been reduced from 5% to 3%. The primary causes of this are operational and geotechnical problems, equipment breakdowns, unfavourable weather, landslides, updated company guidelines in a few countries, and community initiatives in Peru.

The D.R. Congo, Peru, and Chile are the key countries where new, enlarged, or ramp-up mines are producing more this year than last. Additionally, because production was still constrained at the start of 2022 due to issues related to Covid-19, output will increase in a number of nations.

Despite ramping mines will contribute to supply with additional production starting in 2023, major projects beginning in 2024 are only anticipated to come online in the second half of the year, resulting in a lower global growth in mine output of 2.5%.

Global refined copper production to increase steadily: Forecasts show that production will rise 2.6% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024. It is projected that output of refined copper in Chile, Indonesia, and the US will remain constrained in 2023 by restrictions on operation and maintenance. Global growth in 2023 and 2024 is anticipated to be mostly supported by China's ongoing electrolytic capacity construction.

Expanded electrowinning (SX-EW) capacity in the DRC continues to provide support for the increase of SX-EW production globally. It is anticipated that global secondary production (from scrap) would rise in 2023 and 2024, helped by the expansion of secondary refinery capacity.

Refined copper consumption expected to edge up in CY23-24: With growing demand for refined copper, usage is expected to rise by 1.4% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 worldwide. The world's ex-China usage is predicted to increase by 1.6% in 2023, surpassing pre-Covid levels after barely increasing by 0.4% in 2022.

For 2023, growth of about 3% is anticipated. It is estimated that Chinese perceived refined usage will rise by roughly 1.2% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024.