Global copper production expected to rise in CY23-24: ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released its market forecast for the world's copper output for 2023 and 2024.

Copper mine production anticipated to rise in 2023:

World copper mine production is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2023, down from earlier forecasts of 3%, due to various factors like geotechnical issues, equipment failures, and lower grades. Nevertheless, it will receive a boost from new and expanded mines, particularly in the D.R. Congo, Peru, and Chile, along with recovery from Covid-19-related production restrictions in 2022. A 3.7% growth is predicted for 2024.

In 2024, world mine production is set to increase by 3.7%, driven by both new and expanded mines. Production rates are expected to rebound in countries that faced operational challenges in 2023, including Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama, and the US.

Key projects like Kamoa Kakula, Tenke, Quellaveco, Torromocho, Quebrada Blanca QB2, Malmyzhskoye, and Udokan, along with several medium and small-scale initiatives, will contribute to this growth, with most projects focusing on concentrate production.

Global refined copper production to increase:

World refined copper production is projected to increase by approximately 3.8% in 2023 and further grow by 4.6% in 2024. However, in 2023, production may be limited due to operational constraints and maintenance work in countries like Chile, Indonesia, Sweden, and the United States.

The growth in refined copper production during 2023 and 2024 will primarily be driven by the continuous expansion of Chinese electrolytic capacity. Additionally, in 2024, new or expanded smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India, and the United States will come online, contributing to the overall rise in production. Furthermore, the world's primary refined output from concentrates will benefit from the commencement of new mining projects, further bolstering production levels.

World electrowinning (SX-EW) output is projected to maintain stability, with the growth in new or expanded capacity in the DRC being offset by a decline in production in Chile. Additionally, global secondary production, derived from scrap, is anticipated to rise in both 2023 and 2024 due to the development of new secondary smelter and refinery capacity.

Refined copper consumption expected to edge up in CY23-24:

World refined copper usage is projected to rise by 2% in 2023, driven by strong growth in Chinese demand, but usage outside China is expected to decrease by 1%. In 2024, global usage is forecasted to increase by 2.7%, thanks to anticipated improvements in manufacturing, the shift to cleaner energy, and the development of new production capacity in various countries, reflecting copper's enduring importance in technology, infrastructure, and cleaner energy trends.

Copper's indispensable role in economic activities, modern technology, and infrastructure developments in major countries, combined with the global trend towards cleaner energy sources and electric vehicles, will continue to support sustained demand for copper in the long-term.

The world refined copper balance is projected to have a deficit of approximately 27,000 tonnes in 2023, primarily driven by higher anticipated growth in Chinese apparent usage, contrasting with a previously forecasted deficit of about 114,000 tonnes. In 2024, a surplus of about 467,000 tonnes is expected due to additional supply compared to the earlier projected surplus of 298,000 tonnes in April 2023. However, it is important to note that actual market balances may differ from these forecasts due to unforeseen developments, and the calculations for China's apparent demand do not consider changes in unreported stocks, which can significantly impact global supply-demand balances.