China's stainless steel production hits new high in April'24 despite demand, price pressure

China, the world's largest stainless steel producer and consumer, witnessed rising production in April after a surge in March. However, demand and the prices continued to remain under pressure.

In April, China's crude stainless steel production continued to rise, reaching a new high since September, totalling 3.22 million tonnes (mnt), up 64,100 tonnes (t) or 2% m-o-m following a 24% m-o-m hike in March. In comparison, production increased by almost 15.5% from the previous year's 2.79 mnt, according to the data maintained by BigMint.

Meanwhile, in April, demand for stainless steel from China's major home appliances showed slower growth but remained positive, projected to gradually weaken in May and June while staying above the five-year average. Despite reduced price impact, foundational support persists, influenced by domestic policies and seasonal fluctuations, amid ongoing supply pressures and geopolitical dynamics.

Series-wise bifurcation

Although production rose across all stainless steel series, the data indicates that the 200-series experienced the most substantial percentage increase, climbing by 4.3% to 0.97 mnt in April, compared to the previous month's 0.93 mnt. Conversely, the output of the 400 series increased by 3.6% m-o-m, reaching 0.57 mnt in April, up from 0.55 mnt in March. In contrast, the production volumes of the 300 series remained stable for the month, holding steady at 1.68 mnt.

When comparing y-o-y output across different series, there was a notable decrease in production, reaching as much as a 19% drop compared to the previous year. The 300 series experienced the most substantial decline.

Import, export scenario

Despite the increased output, China's stainless steel imports surged in April to 194,000 t, marking a 27% increase from the previous month and a significant 59% rise y-o-y. Over the initial four months of the year, imports from China's top five sources, including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Taiwan, totaled approximately 802,000 t, up by 38% compared to the same period last year.

The increase in imports is mainly attributed to cold-rolled coils (CRCs) witnessing a substantial monthly rise of 120% surge m-o-m.

Conversely, China's stainless steel exports in April reached around 393,000 t, showing a slight 2% m-o-m increase and a 4% growth y-o-y. Between January and April, exports to China's top 20 destinations amounted to roughly 322,000 t, reflecting an 8% increase compared to the previous year.

Notably, there was a significant surge in exports of stainless steel pipes, which saw an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous month. Turning to the top export destinations in April 2024, key countries included Vietnam, Turkiye, India, and Korea.