China's apparent steel consumption to drop to 820 mnt by 2035: CISA

China's steel consumption has peaked, and a decline is inevitable in the future, He Wenbo, the executive chairman of China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) told delegates during Mysteel's annual conference held in Shanghai over the past weekend.

As such, China's apparent consumption of crude steel is expected to reach 910 million tonnes (mnt) in 2025, and the volume may slip to 860 mnt by 2030 and to 820 mnt by 2035, he predicted.

The CISA official noted that despite the current steady support from several downstream users including infrastructure, automobile, shipbuilding and home appliances, China's overall steel demand will inevitably decline after developing at a high speed for more than 40 years.

This reduction is a result of the mature stage reached by China's industrialisation and urbanisation, where the country has developed adequate roads, railways, ports, airports, office buildings and residential homes, he explained.

The advancement in steelmaking technology was cited as another reason for the decline in steel consumption. He noted that about one-third of steel products will be replaced by higher-strength, corrosion-resistant, and more efficient materials in every 10 years, leading to a decrease in steel use. And the substitution of alternative materials will also contribute to lower steel consumption.

Moreover, the CISA official suggested expediting the implementation of carbon caps to limit China's steelmaking capacity and facilitate high-quality development of the steel industry. This proposition entails linking a mill's steel production volume to its carbon permits, which will prompt Chinese steelmakers to voluntarily control their capacity and reduce carbon emissions.

He also called for more policies to promote the use of steel scrap, emphasising its role as the primary means of reducing carbon emissions in the steel industry. The official stressed the need to continue encouraging the development of electric-arc-furnace steelmaking, which currently accounts for only 9.5% of China's total crude steel output.

In parallel, he proposed refraining from adding more blast furnaces (BF) due to their sufficient quantity in China. Instead, he advocated for the upgrading of existing blast furnaces to mitigate carbon emissions and strategised for the reduction of BF route steelmaking in the future.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and Steelmint.