China weekly: Steel prices rise post-national holidays

This week, the Chinese steel market gained momentum across product categories post the week-long National Day holidays. With limited scope of easing in production restrictions and an increase in raw material prices, intermediate and finished steel prices also gained. However, on the exports side, the participants were awaiting a clear direction which is likely to be seen in the succeeding week.

Product wise sentiments

1. China spot iron ore prices up w-o-w: Chinese spot iron ore fines Fe 62% prices opened at $117.8/tonne (t) CNF China for the week and increased to $125.05/t, CNF China towards the weekend. While some participants chose to wait for a greater clarity on iron ore demand after the holidays, there were expectations of weaker iron ore demand on anticipation that production cuts may continue in order to meet the year-end steel output target.

Iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports increased to 133.7 million tonnes (mn t) this week as against 133.5 mn t in the week before, as per data maintained by SteelHome.
Tight supplies keep spot pellet premiums up w-o-w: Spot pellet premiums for Fe 65% grade pellets were assessed at $63.55/t as against $61.3/t last week.

Several Chinese sources were of the view that pellet prices will remain supported on tight supply in China. Power cuts in the country reduced output from Chinese pellet plants, negatively impacting domestic production.

During the Chinese Golden Week holidays, buyers showed subdued interest in pellet buying which improved after the holidays ended. Total pellet inventory at China's major ports was recorded at 4 mn t this week as against 4.3 mn t a week ago.

Spot lump premiums up w-o-w: Spot lump premiums were at $0.1400/dmtu, up against $0.1300/dmtu assessed last week. Some sources expected the winter sintering controls to lift lump demand further. Also, it is expected that lump offers may go higher after the holidays end in China as it is reasonable to increase lump usage in the burden-mix due to its cost-effectiveness.

2. Coking coal prices up $7/t w-o-w: Seaborne coking coal (HCC) prices continued to surge this week on the back of active trading in the ex-China Asian markets amidst tight spot supply.

The Chinese market continued witnessing shortages of both imported and domestic coking coal amid ongoing safety and environmental regulations and limited availability of non-Australian premium materials, while demand remained robust on healthy steel margins.

Earlier this week, a deal was reported for 75,000 t of Australian premium mid-vol Moranbah North, with a mid-Nov'21 laycan, of which the 30,000 t cargo was concluded at $395/t FOB. Another 45,000 t was concluded on a floating price based on PLV HCC FOB Australia.

The latest price for the premium HCC grade is assessed at around $396/t) FOB Australia as against $389/t FOB a week ago.

2. China's domestic billet prices rise post-holidays: Steel billet prices in China's Tangshan rose by RMB 80/t ($12/t) on 8 Oct'21 as the market opened after the Golden Week holidays. Prices of domestic billets stood at RMB 5,290/t ($820/t), inclusive of 13% VAT. China's rebar futures contract for Jan'22 delivery on SHFE closed today at RMB 5,750/t ($891/t), increasing by RMB 44/t ($7/t) against the closing on 30 Sept'21.

3. Buyers await clarity on HRC export offers: Market participants remained on the sidelines amid anticipation that mills may quote new offers by the following Monday (11 Oct'21). Offers stood at around $970-990/t FOB China prior to the holidays.

In the domestic market, HRC prices rose sharply by RMB 80-100/t to RMB 5,820-5,870 (Eastern China) compared with RMB 5,700-5,740/t (Eastern China) a week ago. The market sentiments remained buoyed on expectation of stringent production curbs alongside power constraints.

4. Domestic rebar prices rise sharply w-o-w: Domestic rebar prices rose sharply by RMB 100-110/t w-o-w to RMB 5,800-5,850/t (Northern China) as against RMB 5,700-5740/t (Northern China) in the previous week. Prices picked up w-o-w over strong demand from the end-user industries post-holidays.