China: Steel inventories at CISA mills decline by 12% m-o-m in mid-Jan'25

• Inventories decline by 16% y-o-y in mid-Jan'25
  
  
• Average daily crude steel output rises 5% m-o-m
  
  

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises touched 12.93 million tonnes (mnt) in mid-January 2025. Inventory levels dropped by 1.71 mnt or 11.7% m-o-m against 14.64 mnt in mid-December 2024. Moreover, compared to 15.35 mnt in mid-January 2024, inventory levels declined by 15.8% y-o-y.

However, inventory levels increased by 340,000 tonnes (t) or 2.7% compared to 12.59 mnt in early-January 2025.

Production volumes

The average daily crude steel output of CISA-affiliated mills stood at 2.072 mnt in mid-January 2025, marginally stable compared with 2.065 mnt in early-January. Moreover, output went up by 4.8% m-o-m from 1.977 mnt in mid-December 2024.

The average daily finished steel output stood at 1.972 mnt in mid-January, up by 3.8% from 1.899 mnt in early-January. However, on a y-o-y basis, output fell by 2.7%.

Average pig iron output stood at 1.853 mnt in mid-January, a decrease of 1.4% against 1.879 mnt in early-January. Moreover, on a y-o-y basis, output fell by 2.1%.

Outlook

With the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays approaching, steel demand and production are likely to slow down, potentially leading to a temporary inventory build-up. Overall, the market is expected to remain range-bound, with prices influenced by pre-holiday restocking and a subsequent seasonal slowdown.