China: Steel inventories at CISA-affiliated mills rise in early-Oct'24

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that the total steel inventory at key enterprises reached 14.73 million tonnes (mnt) in early-October 2024. This represents a rise of 3.2% or 450,000 tonnes (t) from 14.28 mnt in late-September 2024. However, inventory levels fell by 240,000 t or 1.6% m-o-m against 14.97 mnt in early-September 2024. Moreover, compared to early-October 2023, inventory levels decreased by 1.63 mnt or 10% y-o-y compared to 16.36 mnt.

Production volumes

The average daily crude steel output of CISA-affiliated mills stood at 2.049 mnt in early-October 2024, an increase of 1.7% from 2.014 mnt in late-September 2024. Moreover, output rose by 5.8% m-o-m from 1.936 mnt in early-September. However, the same fell by 1.6% y-o-y from 2.083 mnt in early-October 2023.

The average daily finished steel output stood at 1.933 mnt, down by 9.6% from 2.138 mnt in late-September 2024. Moreover, the same dropped by 4.8% y-o-y.

The average pig iron output stood at 1.855 mnt in early-October 2024, an increase of 0.3% as compared to 1.850 mnt in late September. However, on a y-o-y basis, the same decreased by 3.6%.

Outlook

China's steel industry faces challenges despite recent improvements. Inventory levels have risen slightly but remain low compared to last year. Crude steel output has increased, but finished steel production has declined, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance.

The overall outlook for the Chinese steel industry remains uncertain, and its ability to sustain growth will depend on various factors, including domestic and global economic conditions, government policies, and market demand.