China: Steel inventories at CISA-affiliated mills decline significantly in late-Nov'24

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has reported that total steel inventory at key enterprises reached 13.15 million tonnes (mnt) in late-November 2024. This represents a decline of of 2.4 million tonnes (mnt) or 15.4% from 15.55 mnt in mid-November 2024. Moreover, inventory levels went down by 490,000 tonnes(t) or 3.6% m-o-m against 13.64 mnt in late-October. However, compared to late-November 2023, inventory levels rose by 190,000 t or 1.5% y-o-y compared to 12.96 mnt.

Production volumes

The average daily crude steel output of CISA-affiliated mills stood at 2.091 mnt in late-November, an increase of 0.5% compared with 2.08 mnt in mid-November 2024. However, output edged down by 0.1% m-o-m from 2.093 mnt in late-October 2024.

The average daily finished steel output stood at 2.163 mnt, up by 6.9% from 2.023 mnt in mid-November 2024. Y-o-y, output fell by 0.8%.

Average pig iron output stood at 1.871 mnt in late-November, a decrease of 0.3% as compared to 1.876 mnt in mid-November. However, on y-o-y basis output increased by 3.7%.

Outlook

China's steel sector showed mixed trends in late-November. Inventory declined, while crude steel production stabilized. Finished steel output increased, and pig iron production saw a slight decrease m-o-m but a y-o-y rise.

Short-term outlook suggests potential inventory stabilization, continued moderate crude steel production, and increased finished steel output, influenced by improving demand. However, global economic and domestic policy uncertainties may impact the sector.