China: Steel exports up 40% y-o-y in Oct'24

China's steel exports rose by 40.8% y-o-y to 11.182 million tonnes (mnt) in October 2024 compared to 7.73 mnt in October 2023, as per General Administration of Customs. In January-October 2024, exports rose by 23.3% y-o-y to 91.89 mnt against 75.5 mnt in the same period last year.

Additionally, m-o-m, export volumes rose by 10% m-o-m from 10.15 mnt in September.

Factors driving China's steel exports

Sluggish domestic market sentiments: A slowdown in China's domestic economy has led to lower demand for steel within the country. Moreover, Chinese steelmakers often offer competitive prices in international markets, making their products attractive to buyers in countries with higher production costs. However, the Chinese government has implemented various policies to stimulate economic growth, including infrastructure projects.

Competitive export offers: Chinese steel exports continued to exhibit competitive pricing compared to other origins. For instance, in October, Chinese export offers stood at $519/t FOB. Meanwhile, Indian mills resumed their export offers at $535/t FOB, surpassing China's prices and making Chinese offers even more appealing to buyers.

Outlook

The outlook for China's steel exports remains cautious due to ongoing anti-dumping investigations. Attractive pricing, weak domestic demand, and potential global recovery have boosted exports. Furthermore, government policies will play a crucial role in shaping domestic demand and export volumes.