China: Steel exports rise by 26% y-o-y in Sep'24

• Mid-Autumn Festival drives surge in demand
  
  
• China's competitive pricing remains unmatched
  
  

China's steel exports rose sharply by 25.9% y-o-y to 10.153 million tonnes (mnt) in September 2024 from 8.06 mnt in September 2023. China's steel exports hit a new milestone, surpassing 10 mnt in a single month for the first time in eight years, as per data from the General Administration of Customs. Additionally, the export volume saw an increase of 7% m-o-m against 9.49 mnt in August 2024.

During January-September 2024, exports increased by 21.2% to 80.71 mnt as compared to 67.53 mnt in the same period of the previous year.

Factors driving China's steel exports

Improved domestic demand: The domestic steel market in China experienced a slight uptick in demand for the month. This improvement in demand was primarily attributed to the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays from 15 to 17 September 2024, which led to a surge in consumer demand, as people stocked up on inventory ahead of the holidays. Despite this temporary boost, overall trade activities within the market remained at a moderate level.

Competitive export offers: China's steel export offers remained low in comparison to other regions. For instance, in September 2024, China's steel export offers were significantly lower than those from Japan, at $462/tonne (t) FOB compared to Japan's $590/t FOB. This competitive pricing boosted exports. On the other hand, Indian steel producers have focused on domestic demand in recent months, leading to a decline in their export volumes.

Outlook

China's steel exports are anticipated to remain strong in the near future. However, growing challenges such as anti-dumping inquiries and the appreciation of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the US dollar (USD) are gradually limiting the country's competitiveness in the global market. These factors could potentially hinder the sustainability of China's steel export growth.