China: Iron ore imports fall 2% m-o-m in Nov'24 on subdued market sentiments

• China's crude steel output drops 3% y-o-y
  
  
• BF mills' production falls to 2-month low
  
  

China recorded a fall of 2% m-o-m in iron ore and pellet imports to 101.862 mnt in November 2024 as compared to 103.83 mnt in the previous month, according to the General Administration of Customs. The slight drop followed subdued market sentiments.

However, in January-November 2024, the world's largest iron ore consumer and importer received shipments of 1124.236 million tonnes (mnt), a 4% increase compared to 1079.749 mnt in the same period last year.

Factors affecting China's iron ore imports

• Crude steel output drops 3% y-o-y: Over January-October 2024 (10MCY'24), domestic crude steel output fell 3% to 850 mnt compared to 877 mnt in the corresponding period last year (CPLY), as per National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data maintained with BigMint. However, on a m-o-m basis, October's output rose 2.9% to 81.9 mnt.
  
  
• BF mills' production falls to 2-month low: The average capacity utilisation rate of the 247 BF steelmakers under Mysteel's regular tracking dropped for a third straight week by 0.47 percentage points to a two-month low of 87.33% during 29 November-5 December.
  
  
• Port, seaborne inventory activity improves: Higher port inventories allowed flexibility in sourcing, and some mills maintained low stocks and relied on last-minute procurement, supporting steady import volumes. Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports rose to 142 mnt in January-November 2024 compared to 124 mnt in the same period last year, according to SteelHome data. Spot iron ore fines (Fe 62%) prices dropped to $110/t CFR China in January-November 2024 against $118/t in the year-ago period.
  
  

Outlook

China's iron ore imports are expected to increase in the coming month, amid infrastructure investments and ongoing government stimulus measures. Additionally, major miners will try to achieve their yearly targets, pushing up overall volumes.