Chile's Cochilco revises copper price forecast for 2024

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) has adjusted its copper price forecast for 2024, now projecting an average of 385 cents, up from the previous estimate of 375 cents made on 23 September. This revision is attributed to factors such as the normalisation of the U.S. monetary policy and the suspension of copper mines in Panama, which are expected to reduce the supply more than initially anticipated. Looking ahead to 2025, Cochilco anticipates a 390 cents average copper price.

For the global copper ingot market in the fiscal year 2024, there is an expected oversupply of 176,000 t. The supply is estimated to reach 26.306 mnt, marking a 4.2% increase from the previous year, while consumption is projected at 26.13 mnt, representing a 3.2% rise.

Notably, China's consumption is forecasted to grow by 1.1% y-o-y, whereas the U.S. and India are expected to experience higher growth rates of 10.5% and 12.7%, respectively. Consequently, global consumption, excluding China, is anticipated to increase by 6% y-o-y.

Looking further into the future, Cochilco predicts a supply of 26.974 mnt in the fiscal year 2025, up by 2.5% y-o-y. Consumption is estimated at 26.805 mnt, reflecting a 2.6% y-o-y increase, resulting in an oversupply of 0.17 mnt. China's consumption is projected to rise by 1% y-o-y, while the rest of the world, excluding China, is expected to experience a 4.6% y-o-y increase.

Note: This article has been published in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and SteelMint.