Chile: Cochilco revises 2024 copper price forecast

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) has increased its 2024 average copper price forecast to 430 cents per pound, up from the 385 cents per pound predicted at the start of the year. They now predict a supply shortage of 364,000 t, instead of the previously forecasted oversupply of 176,000 t.

This change is due to a copper mine shutdown in Panama, production cuts planned by major resource companies, and announced reductions at a Chinese smelter. Strong copper demand and speculative investment have also driven prices up. Additionally, Cochilco raised its 25-year copper price forecast to 425 cents per pound from 390 cents.

In FY'24, the global supply of copper ingots is projected to be 26,422,000 t, a 2.7% increase y-o-y, while consumption is expected to reach 26,786,000 t, up 3.6% y-o-y, leading to a supply shortage of 364,000 t. China's consumption is anticipated to grow by only 2.5%, whereas global consumption excluding China is expected to rise by 5.1%.

Copper mine production is forecasted to be 22,507,000 t in FY'24, a 2.5% y-o-y increase, and 23,484,000 t in FY'25, up 4.6% y-o-y. In 2024, the top three producing countries are expected to be Chile with 5,513,000 t (up 5%), Congo with 2,829,000 t (up 10.5%), and Peru with 2,711,000 t (down 1.6%). Chilean production is anticipated to rise with the launch of the Quebrada-Blanca copper mine.