BIR: What lies ahead for global non-ferrous recycling market in CY'25?

As 2024 draws to a close, the non-ferrous metals recycling industry continues to grapple with significant supply challenges. The latest BIR World Mirror on Non-Ferrous Metals highlights global concerns over material availability, a theme that has persisted throughout the year. This issue brings together expert insights from across the globe, shedding light on the ongoing struggles and market dynamics shaping the recycling sector.

Indian economy & aluminium market update

Anirudha Agrawal, BIR Non-Ferrous Metals Division, Manaksia Aluminium Co. Ltd. noted, India's economy showed signs of slowing down in Q2 FY2024, with GDP growth easing to 6.5%. Reduced private consumption, high food inflation, and weak corporate margins contributed to the slowdown. However, the manufacturing and services sectors showed resilience, with the India Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.5 in October. India's GDP is expected to rebound to 6.7% in Q4 and remain steady at 6.8% in FY'25.

In the aluminium market, prices have declined due to reduced demand, with the LME aluminium levels hovering around $2,682/t, though the Asian market, particularly China, remains stable. Aluminium scrap availability is increasing.

China's new copper, aluminium import regulations

Ma Hongchang, Regional Recycling Expert at China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment, introduced new regulations for recycled copper and aluminium imports, effective 15 November. Key measures include:

• Segregation of materials for customs clearance.
  
  
• Specific customs codes for different types of recycled materials.
  
  
• Sensory inspection to ensure compliance with national standards.
  
  

These regulations aim to streamline the import process and enhance quality control in the sector. At the same time, China's GDP growth has slowed to 4.7% since 2020, with a 5% growth rate in the first half of 2024 and a projected 4.8% for the year. The potential 10% tariff on Chinese goods, proposed by US President-Elect Donald Trump, has raised uncertainty, especially for China's primary aluminium industry. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CMRA) recently held its annual convention in Suzhou, attracting over 2,500 attendees from 40+ countries.

China Economic & Regulatory Update

By Ma Hongchang, BIR Advisor on Regulatory and Policy Developments (CHN)

China's GDP growth slowed to 4.7% in 2024, with a projection of 4.8% for the full year. The potential 10% tariff on Chinese goods by US President-Elect Donald Trump raises uncertainty, particularly for China's primary aluminium industry and electric vehicle sector.

United States Economic and Market Update

By Rick Dobkin, Shapiro Metals (USA)

• Political shift: With Donald Trump returning to office, his administration focuses on border security, economic protectionism, and potential 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
  
  
• Economic outlook: Inflation is under control, unemployment is low, and GDP growth is modest. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice, but concerns over tariffs sparking inflation remain.
  
  
• Aluminium market: Supply tightens with new mills entering the market. Primary aluminium prices are stable, with regional premiums expected to rise, particularly with potential Canadian tariffs. Secondary aluminium and scrap prices remain stable, but demand is expected to drop as year-end approaches.
  
  

Japan Economic and Market Update

By Yoko Yoshida, Metal Solution Provider (JPN)

• Government actions: The new government, under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has approved a major economic stimulus package and potential tax reforms.
  
  
• Metals market: Chinese import restrictions relaxation has impacted scrap availability, while tightening regulations in Malaysia reduced copper imports. Aluminium scrap scarcity has driven prices to record highs.
  
  

Australasia Economic Update

By Paul Coyte, Hayes Metals (NZL)

• Year-end slowdown: Australia and New Zealand face a quieter than usual year-end, with lower volumes after stock clearances. Margin pressures continue as demand decreases.
  
  
• Macroeconomic trends: New Zealand cut its Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points in November, and further cuts are expected. Australia's rate remains higher than New Zealand's.
  
  

Canada Update: Battery Recycling and Industry Developments

By Sebastien Perron, Wiedland-Werke AG (DEU)

• Battery recycling setbacks: Umicore paused the construction of its battery recycling plant in Ontario to optimize existing plant capacity.
  
  
• EV battery recycling: Hyundai Canada partnered with Lithion for EV battery recycling, enabling dealerships to send used components to Lithion's new facility near Montreal, promoting a circular economy.
  
  

Middle East Update: Clean Energy and Non-Ferrous Metals Growth

By Rami Shahrour, SHARMETAL TRADING CO. S.A.R.L. (LBN)

• Clean energy focus: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are leading the region's clean energy transition, with mega-projects like Jeddah Tower, Neom, and The Line focusing on sustainability.
  
  
• Non-ferrous metals demand: These projects are expected to drive demand for metals like aluminium, copper, and zinc.
  
  
• Regional growth: Summits on renewable energy, hydrogen, and carbon reduction highlight the region's commitment to net-zero goals, with efforts to boost local metal production and reduce imports.
  
  
• Political stability: Ongoing conflict resolutions are fostering stability, supporting long-term industrial and economic growth in the region.
  
  

South Africa Economic Update

By Sidney Lazarus, Non-Ferrous Metal Works (ZAF)

• Improving business conditions: Business conditions are improving, with energy issues being addressed through Eskom's efforts and a nuclear power plan.
  
  
• Copper and aluminium exports: The ban on copper scrap exports remains, but copper ingots and aluminium scrap can be exported.
  
  
• Economic growth: Inflation is at 3.8%, with expected interest rate cuts in January. The government is fostering investment, though concerns remain about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act amid US political changes.
  
  

South East Asia Trade and Recycling Disruptions

By Stella Ying Wang, American Iron & Metal LP (CAN)

• Logistics crisis: Malaysia's Port Klang is paralyzed by congestion due to customs inspections, causing delays and diverting shipments to alternative ports like Laem Chabang in Thailand.
  
  
• Recycling challenges: Crackdowns on non-compliant recycling facilities in Thailand have led to widespread closures, disrupting material flows and highlighting weaknesses in the recycling management system.
  
  
• Regional impact: While Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines may offer alternatives, the region's capacity to handle the increased volumes is uncertain. The situation stresses the need for systemic reforms and regional cooperation to ensure trade and recycling stability.
  
  

Benelux Market Update

By Jurgen Van Gorp, Aurubis AG (BEL)

• Market quiet: Businesses are preparing for the holiday season amid concerns over material availability and car manufacturers closing facilities.
  
  
• Metals memand: Aluminium volumes are below expectations, while stainless steel faces challenges due to consumer-driven prices. Copper demand is steady but subdued.
  
  
• Outlook for 2025: Concerns over new EU regulations on trans-frontier shipments of recyclable materials.
  
  

Eastern Europe Market Update

By Natallia Zholud, TRM Group (POL)

• Russian exports: Boosted by Trump's election win and a stronger dollar, Russian brass and aluminium alloy producers are accepting orders for early 2025.
  
  
• Transportation issues: Limited railway containers and port congestion in Russia, plus worsening border issues in Ukraine, are disrupting supply chains.
  
  

Germany & Poland Economic and Market Update

By Murat Bayram, European Metal Recycling Limited (GBR)

• Poland: GDP growth of 3% in 2024, driven by private consumption, though net exports remain a drag.
  
  
• Germany: Economic contraction due to weak manufacturing and high uncertainty. The aluminium and automotive sectors are struggling, facing high energy costs and production declines.
  
  
• Aluminium market: Strong scrap demand but limited supply. US dollar strength leads to more ingot exports, particularly to Asia.
  
  
• Copper market: Subdued demand and ongoing contract negotiations; approaching winter expected to tighten scrap availability.
  
  

Italy Economic and Market Update

By Leopoldo Clemente, LCD Trading S.R.L (ITA)

• Exports: Exports dropped by 0.7% in 2024, with non-EU exports slightly up by 0.8%. Declines in key markets like the USA and the Middle East impacted overall performance.
  
  
• Labor shortages: Significant gaps in electronics, fashion, and wood sectors, with up to 70% of positions unfilled.
  
  
• Growth forecast: Moody's forecasts growth below 1% in 2024 due to weak domestic demand and the German slowdown.
  
  

Nordic Countries Economic and Market Update

By Elinor Feuer

• Material availability: Limited supply and market tension, but stability remains.
  
  
• Economic Recovery:

  • Sweden: Growth from interest rate cuts and fiscal policies, but housing uncertainty.
    
    
  • Denmark: Steady growth driven by consumer spending and clean energy support.
    
    
  • Norway: Slower recovery, but housing and government spending support.
    
    
  • Finland: Emerging from recession, with growth expected in 2025.
    
    

  
  
  

• Outlook: Steady growth by 2026 despite inflation and weak export demand.
  
  

Portugal & Spain Market Update

By Jose-Martin Neumann

• Portugal: Copper foundries closed until January 2025, causing local price drops. GDP growth forecast to slow to 1.7% in 2024 but improve in 2025. Labour market stable.
  
  
• Spain: Economy growing at 2.9% in 2024, with tourism playing a key role. Despite floods, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is improving.
  
  

United Kingdom Market Update

By Gareth Hyams

• Market stability: Despite slower economic signs, business remains steady, and material availability has decreased.
  
  
• Aluminium demand: Boost in both primary and secondary grades.
  
  
• Regulatory outlook for 2025: New environmental permitting regulations for POPs, cables, and batteries.
  
  

Mexico Market Update

By Alejandro Jaramillo

• Industry impact: Increasing government recognition of the industry's value, but concerns over restrictions.
  
  
• US-Mexico trade: Potential for stronger trade under the USMCA despite border concerns post-Trump election.
  
  
• Aluminium scrap: Balanced supply and demand, with strong demand for UBC scrap, but limited supply of cast and old sheet aluminium.