BigMint: India HRC export market drops w-o-w amid holidays

• HRC import offers for ME decline
  
  
• Chinese price fluctuations post-Qingming holidays
  
  

BigMint's India HRC (SAE 1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) fell by $7/t w-o-w to $560/t against $567/t FOB east coast India. Prices dropped ahead of Eid holiday and slow trade activities in Middle East (ME) market. Moreover, buyers are booking very limited quantities which are being shipped immediately informed an ME-based source. While, buyers in Europe are also cautious amid weak demand in the region and unclear import quotas.

Market updates

1. HRC import offers for ME drop w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the ME fell by $5-10/t w-o-w to $600/t against $605-610/t CFR in the previous week, informed sources. Moreover, Chinese HRC export offers to ME also fell by $5/t w-o-w with offers hovering around $560-565/t from tier 1 mills, while offers from tier-2 mills remain range-bound to $550-560/t CFR. The price differential between Indian and Chinese offerings is narrowing, however, Chinese prices are still competitive. The imported HRC prices in ME declined amid slow market demand, with Eid holiday approaching and last few days left for the holy month of Ramadan. In addition, few buyers are booking very limited quantity which is being shipped immediately.

2. Indian HRC export offers to EU drop w-o-w: Indian HRC export prices of Europe (S275, 3mm) dropped by around $5/t w-o-w this week to $640-645/t CFR Antwerp ($590-595/t) FOB east coast India. Mills lowered offers as European buyers are cautious due to weak demand and uncertainty about import quotas. While buyers seek further lower prices, sellers remain hesitant following China's reopening yesterday. In addition, trade activity in the EU market stayed very slow, with mills refusing further price reductions due to production cost pressures.

3. Vietnam's imported HRC prices rise w-o-w from China: Imported HRC offers from China to Vietnam have seen a slight increase of $5-10/t CFR compared to the last week. Offers for Chinese HRC (SAE1006 grade) are currently around $560-565/t CFR, up from $550-555/t CFR. Prices rose amid increased SHFE HRC futures, the same increased by RMB 93/t ($13/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,781/t ($523/t) on 9 April against RMB 3,688/t ($510/t) on 2 April. However, no firm offers from India were heard this week, last heard offers were around $567/t CFR, sources informed BigMint. In addition, Vietnamese steel company, Hoa Phat, has reduced its prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) by $40-45/t for June-July 2024 sales. This price cut comes amid lower exports, slow construction activity, and competitive import prices for HRC. The new price is $553/t or VND 13,740,000/t, excluding VAT.

Outlook:

Chinese SHFE futures offers rose w-o-w post-Qingming festival. If Chinese price increase sustains, Indian mills may get an opportunity to capture the higher margins in the export market. However, Indian mills are holding off on actively offering for exports due to improving domestic market sentiments. Moreover, Eid holiday in ME and cautious EU buyers have kept global market sentiments mixed.