BigMint analysis of iron ore exports from major suppliers and evolving market dynamics in Dec'24

Australia: Iron ore export shipments increase 5% m-o-m in Dec'24

• Australian iron ore and pellet export shipments rose by 5% to 77.9 mnt in December as compared to 74.1 mnt in November, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint.
  
  
• China was the major importer with 66.9 mnt followed by Japan at 4.4 mnt and South Korea at 3.5 mnt.
  
  
• Cumulative export volumes (January-December'24) marginally increased by 2% to 864.8 mnt compared to 849.6 mnt in the year-ago period.
  
  
• Increased production and shipment guidance of key miners like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, FMG, etc. pushed up country's export volumes
  
  

Brazil: Iron ore export shipments down 2% m-o-m in Dec'24

• Brazil iron ore export shipment fell by 2% m-o-m to 33.57 mnt in Dec'24 as against 34.18 mnt in Nov'24.
  
  
• China emerged as the largest importer with 20.21 mnt followed by Japan with 1.60 mnt and Malaysia with 1.53 mnt.
  
  
• Additionally, cummulative export volumes (Jan-Dec'24) is around 370.31 mnt.
  
  
• This rise in shipments from Vale has been attributed to S11D's, Itabira's, and Brucutu's strong performance following which the miner has raised its CY'24 production guidance for the same to 323-330 mnt.
  
  

South Africa: Iron ore exports rise 8% m-o-m in Dec

• South Africa's iron ore exports climbed by 8% m-o-m to 5.42 mnt in Dec'24 compared to 5.03 mnt in Nov'24, as per vessel line-up data maintained by BigMint.
  
  
• China was the largest importer (2.69 mnt) followed by The Netherlands (0.46 mnt).
  
  
• Kumba mines was the leading exporter at 3.22 mnt, rose by 10% m-o-m, followed by Assmang at 1.63 mnt, up by 2% m-o-m and Sedibeng with 160,000 t, down by 8% m-o-m.
  
  

India: Iron ore exports rise by 18% m-o-m in Dec

• India iron ore and pellet export shipment rose by 18% m-o-m to 2.14 mnt in Dec'24 as against 1.82 mnt in Nov'24.
  
  
• China emerged as the largest importer with 1.69 mnt followed by Indonesia with 0.06 mnt.
  
  
• However, cumulative export volumes (Jan-Dec'24) decreased by 14% to 38.08 mnt compared to 44.05 mnt in the year-ago period.
  
  
• The decrease in shipment is due to lack of domestic demand, with real estate construction and infrastructure sectors continuing to slow down, as well as declining margins of producers.